The Future Of Banking

The banking industry is always in a state of transition. Banks are also coming out with new products to attract customers. Over the past 20 years, we have seen direct deposit, online banking, banking applications, and automated tellers. All of these products were designed to save money and make banking easier for customers. So, what are banks working on now to improve operations?

Here are 3 ways that technology will make your banking life easier over the next few years.

1. Fewer Trips To The Bank

Remote-deposit capture is the new big thing in banking. Remote deposit capture allows customers to make a bank deposit without leaving their house. Customers can take a picture of a check at home. The computer receives the image and verifies the amount, check number, account number, and the bank's routing number. A photo of the back of the check verifies that it's been signed by the recipient. A clearinghouse then routes the funds from the check writer's account to that of the recipient. Funds are available for withdrawal without ever setting foot in a bank.

2. Fewer Bank Tellers

Banks will always need tellers to address customers but tellers are being replaced by bank technology. First, there was the invention of Automated Teller Machines (ATM). Now, a few major credit unions are trying branches with very few tellers. The bank lobbies have no physical tellers. The teller transacts all business with the customer via a video camera. The teller can see and hear the customer but the customer never physically sees a bank teller. This cuts down on robberies and reduces the number of tellers needed.

When Average Earnings Are Not Representative

Posted by Tetyana Matychak in Business on September 3rd, 2010

For various reasons, value investors are encouraged to use an average of several years worth of earnings as an estimate of a company’s earnings power. But when a company grows quickly (e.g. through the acquisition of a competitor), average earnings are no longer representative of earnings power. In such cases, other methods of estimating a company’s earnings may be more useful.

Consider Canam Group (CAM), a company that has gone on a buying spree in the last year or so. As competitors have been shutting down units to conserve cash, Canam has been strategically purchasing competitor plants at attractive prices. As many industries are currently at overcapacity, the benefits of these acquisitions won’t be seen for years. But the costs of these acquisitions (i.e. the cash used to finance the purchases) are seen immediately. How does one value the fact that future earnings will be higher than past earnings?

One method applicable to manufacturing companies is based on a company’s historical return on its fixed assets. If similar assets to the company’s current assets have been purchased, the company may be expected to generate the same type of returns on those fixed assets that it generated over the last business cycle. Of course, this exercise only results in a starting point for estimating future earnings. Adjustments may have to be made based on the age of the assets acquired, their quality, and a whole slew of other factors (e.g. geography).

When times are good, companies will often fall over themselves in bidding wars to acquire potential targets or business units. Value investors realize, however, that the best time for companies to acquire such assets is when business conditions are poor (financing in general is hard to come by, there is overcapacity in many industries, and sellers are desperate to raise cash), due to the great price discounts that are available. Read the rest of this entry »

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Dealers Digest Central Bank Views And Buy Bonds

Posted by Tetyana Matychak in Investing on September 1st, 2010

Friday’s initial response to the words from Ben Bernanke is being reversed on Monday. Bond yields jumped sharply as the Fed Chairman said that the FOMC stood ready to perform whatever action necessary to safeguard the economy from failing. Investors immediately looked beyond the action of further quantitative easing and took this as a sign that ultimate economic recovery would be bearish for bonds.

Eurodollar futures – Short-end Eurodollar futures are making gains again on Monday with the rise in deferred maturities almost at a double-digit pace. September treasury note futures have climbed by a half-point this morning to stand at 125-23 to yield 2.59%. The initial response to the speech at Jackson Hole in Wyoming was a fear that meaningful measures to support the U.S. economy would revive growth sufficiently so as to put the era of extremely low interest rates at risk. But as dealers ponder further this morning the renewed buying suggests that they recognize that although the Fed is prepared to act, it can’t go the distance without a confluence of other resources pulling in the same direction at once.

European bond markets – September bunds have recovered from Friday’s slump to 133.25 as weaker longs were knocked out of the market. The contract has climbed once again on Monday to 134.19 where the yield of 2.13 stands seven basis points below that at Friday’s close and compares to last Monday’s record low of 2.09%. The demand for German bunds remained firm despite the headwind of relatively bullish economic data. A European Commission report showed a rise to a two-year peak in confidence in the economic outlook. An unsourced report running in today’s Financial Times says that the ECB will extend its emergency aid to the region’s banking system through 2011. Euribor futures made minor gains on the story. Read the rest of this entry »

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Bounce Or New Beginning?

Posted by Tetyana Matychak in Fund Markets on August 31st, 2010

Although it was one of the last summer Friday’s, trading was surprisingly volatile. Despite the fact that most traders were likely working on their short game or vacationing with the family, there was a serious dose of data input to the game on Friday ranging from economic results, corporate guidance, and of course, some very important Fedspeak. The end result was an impressive move up in the indices, which may or may not represent a new beginning for the bull camp.

While the bears could be heard making remarks about short-covering and discussing the height to which a dead cat could actually bounce, the bulls talked about a second successful test of 1040 and a move “into the gap” that was created by Tuesday’s opening dive lower. And while no one knows for sure how much farther the bulls can run, it does appear that our heroes in horns were able to wrestle the ball away from their opponents on Friday.

There were three key inputs to the session. First, we had the first revision to the second quarter GDP in the U.S. While down significantly from the initial estimate made earlier in the month (remember, the government’s first estimate didn’t even include all the data from the final month of the quarter), the growth rate of 1.6% was actually better than the consensus for a rate of 1.3% and the whisper numbers containing a zero-handle. The takeaway from the report was that although the growth has indeed slowed, the economy does continue to grow. And in short, this is what “slowdowns” look and feel like.

The next bit of data was less upbeat as Intel (INTC) revised its revenue guidance for the third quarter – and not in a good way. Although analysts following the chipmaker suggested that the move wasn’t exactly a surprise, the computers that look for key words were able to put “Intel” and “reduced guidance” together in order to create a swift downdraft. It is also interesting to note that the Intel news was released within a couple minutes of the University of Michigan’s Confidence index, which, while not a bad report by any stretch, also came in “below consensus.” As such, the computers clearly got busy for a period of about 10 minutes Friday morning. Read the rest of this entry »

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Investing In South Korea: Why This Emerging Market Is A Perfect Contrarian Opportunity

Posted by Tetyana Matychak in Investing on August 27th, 2010

The mere mention of this country’s name can cause the “Risk-o-Meter” to nudge higher. But it’s got nothing to do with the nation’s own economy or growth prospects.

Rather, the problem resides to its immediate north in the shape of the contentious Kim Jong-Il and the saber-rattling North Koreans. Their South Korean neighbors live with the constant threat of violence erupting at any moment – especially after North Korea allegedly torpedoed one of South Korea’s warships in March.

But the likelihood of a full-blown war is slim. Why? Because the United States still has some 28,500 troops in South Korea. And thanks to the long-standing U.S.-South Korea alliance, any North Korean attack would effectively be an attack upon the United States, too.

Even Kim Jong-Il knows that’s a bad idea and would end disastrously for his rogue nation.

And for investors, the overblown geopolitical climate is just one reason why I’m convinced that now is the perfect time to buy into this contrarian situation. But there are more… Read the rest of this entry »

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Is Company Guidance Worth Listening To?

Posted by Tetyana Matychak in Trading Markets on August 26th, 2010

Yesterday I wrote a post titled “Q2 earnings scorecard — believe the guidance or believe the bears?” The point of that post was that forward guidance during the most recent earnings season closely matched the guidance offered during the previous earnings season and that, based on these fairly positive expectations of company management, it was unlikely that the economy was heading for a double dip.

It immediately afterward occurred to me that it might be worthwhile to test the hypothesis that Upside guidance actually results in increased earnings.

In Q1 of 2010, roughly 20% of the companies that offered any guidance at all provided Upside guidance. Here are the Q2 results for this optimistic set of companies:
77% did actually deliver increased earnings
2% delivered no increase
21% showed a decrease in earnings
93% showed year-over-year top-line growth
7% saw a decrease in revenues

Companies that offer Inline or Mixed guidance usually see their stock price slammed during earnings season. Do they deserve it? Read the rest of this entry »

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Housing’s a wreck. Builders rally. Huh?

Posted by Tetyana Matychak in Investing on August 25th, 2010

Existing home sales plummeted in July. New home sales sunk as well, hitting a record low. And even though luxury homebuilder Toll Brothers reported a surprise quarterly profit Wednesday, that was largely due to a tax break. Sales were down slightly from a year ago and orders dropped 16%.

Despite this, some investors appear willing to once again bet that the housing market has hit bottom. Shares of Toll Brothers (TOL) were up more than 2% in early afternoon trading.

The S&P SPDR Homebuilders (XHB) exchange traded fund, which holds other builders such as KB Home (KBH) and Pulte (PHM), as well as building materials makers and home improvement retailers, rose 1.5%.

It’s a strange reaction to say the least. The broad market is down because of more gloomy housing data. But the companies that are most directly tied to the health of the housing market are up?

It doesn’t make a heck of a lot of sense. It may be a case of traders betting for the umpteenth time that this is finally a bottom for housing.

That’s a mistake. Now that the tax credit for homebuyers has expired, it’s difficult to imagine what can juice the real estate market again in the near-term. Read the rest of this entry »

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U.S. stock futures rise ahead of Bernanke testimony

Posted by Tetyana Matychak in Fund Markets on July 21st, 2010

U.S. stock futures rose on Wednesday, buoyed by Apple’s stronger-than-expected results, as investors braced for testimony by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and another barrage of earnings reports.

Nasdaq 100 futures gained 11.75 points to 1,851.50 and S&P 500 futures added 4.40 points to 1,084.50. Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 31 points to 10,210. The Dow (DJIA 10,230, +75.53, +0.74%) ended up 0.7% on Tuesday, reversing intraday triple-digit
losses.

Sentiment was buoyed after Apple (AAPL 251.89, +6.31, +2.57%) reported last night a surge in earnings due to booming demand for its iPhone and iPad devices.

Strategists at Deutsche Bank said the spotlight Wednesday will be on Bernanke’s monetary policy report to the U.S. Senate Banking Committee.

“Expectations that Bernanke may announce policy accommodation measures seemed to help risk assets recover from the softer housing-starts data and Goldman Sachs’ earnings and revenue miss,” they wrote in a note. Markets will “likely listen carefully to decipher any hints about the possibility of a U.S. double-dip [recession].”

Bernanke will start speaking at 2 p.m. Eastern time, but before that investors will get a number of earnings reports from companies, including Morgan Stanley (MS 25.22, +0.44, +1.78%) , Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC 25.91, -0.11, -0.42%) and  Freeport McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. (FCX 64.32, +3.46, +5.69%) .  Read the rest of this entry »

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Could Your Offshore Jurisdiction Go Bankrupt? Part I

Posted by Tetyana Matychak in Investing on July 20th, 2010

Offshore centers now face a perfect financial storm. In more prosperous times, revenues from the offshore sector, along with tourism, helped fuel these countries’ economies. Their governments emulated more developed nations by borrowing heavily to build up their infrastructure. They also bought votes with social programs and bloated government payrolls.

When the global economy tanked, tourist revenues fell, along with revenues from their offshore sectors. But the social programs and bloated payrolls remained.

Blame Offshore Tax Havens! (Again)

The economic crisis also led to worldwide drop in tax revenues, with the biggest losers big industrialized countries like the United States. Politicians in these countries found a convenient scapegoat to blame for falling tax revenues: dozens of mostly tiny offshore centers.

Using the economic crisis, the world’s richest and most powerful governments had the perfect opportunity to achieve a long-term goal: forcing offshore jurisdictions to enforce their tax laws. They acted through non-governmental organizations they control, such as the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). The OECD has the authority to issue supposedly non-binding “best practices” guidelines. And, the OECD now decrees that “best practices” meant becoming tax collectors on behalf of these rich and powerful governments. Read the rest of this entry »

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Raising Money During The Summer Slowdown

Posted by Tetyana Matychak in Investing on July 6th, 2010

The streets are empty in NYC this July 4th weekend and it seems like everyone is at the beach. The Gotham Gal and I are getting ready to head to Italy for a week on Sunday night. Summer is here and I can feel the pace of work life and city life slow down.

Many of our companies experience a slow third quarter because people aren’t working at quite the same pace in July and August and it is hard to get it all back in September. And many entrepreneurs and investors I work with assume for the same reasons that the summer months are a bad time to be raising money.

I don’t think the summer months are a bad time to be raising money. It’s a different time to be sure, but not necessarily worse. We see a lot less incoming activity in the summer months so it may be the best time to get a VC’s attention. If everyone else thinks it is a bad time, then the contrarian in me says it is a good time.

I just did a quick query on our portfolio and we made our first investments in eight of our twenty-seven active portfolio companies during the third quarter. Three of our investments were closed in July. Three of our investments were closed in August. And two of our investments were closed in the first couple weeks of September.

Eight out of twenty-seven is thirty percent of our portfolio, and that is north of the twenty-five percent of the year that the summer represents. So our firm has been more active on new investments during the summer than we are on average. Read the rest of this entry »

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Nineteen Billion Dollars Is A Big Deal

Posted by Tetyana Matychak in Banks on July 2nd, 2010

The blogosphere is having conniptions over Scott Brown’s announcement that he won’t vote for final passage of FinReg because of the $19 billion tax on banks that was incorporated at the last minute. The recurring theme is that $19 billion is a small amount of money and that anyway it’s going to be levied on the big banks that have benefited from government efforts to keep the financial system afloat.

Here’s what Ryan Avent has to say:

The fee in question was introduced during the conference session and is designed to cover the cost of the bill, that is, to make sure it’s deficit neutral. It’s a modest amount, and it’s levied on entities that have benefitted significantly from the massive government intervention deployed to keep the financial system afloat during the financial crisis.

And Joe Weisenthal jumps on the subject with this:

This whole thing is a bit silly. $19 billion, levies across the financial system, on various players based on their size is tiny. We repeat: tiny. And beyond that, this isn’t some kind of punitive tax; it’s designed to pay for the enforcement of the bill, which presumably Scott Brown is in favor of, if he likes the rest of the bill. Read the rest of this entry »

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