Posts Tagged unemployment
10 reasons why this is not a bull market
Posted by Oksana Grebenjuk in Fund Markets on Март 26th, 2010
Kevin Cassidy, a senior credit analyst at Moody’s, recently referenced the $700 billion in risky high-yield corporate debt on the horizon and offered, «An avalanche is brewing in 2012 and beyond if companies don’t get out in front of this.»
Minyanville offered a similar assessment entering September 2008 as $871 billion of corporate debt was set to mature into year-end. We opined there were two plausible scenarios; a credit cancer that would chew through the financial body, or a car crash that would crack the system under the weight of an indebted world. Read Minyanville’s «Pirate’s Booty.»
I agree that another avalanche is building atop Credit Mountain; while risk transferred from corporate coffers to sovereign strongboxes, the magnitude is cumulative in cause and effect. And despite scary parallels between the 2008 financial crisis and our modern day sequel, savvy investors continue to monitor corporate credit as a timing mechanism for an equity downturn.
As stocks grind to fresh 18-month highs, we’re left to wonder if the upside window of opportunity will remain open until corporations are again forced to pay their bar tab. Credit markets are exhibiting surreal strength and through that lens and that lens alone, the equity market has plenty of room to run.
The question is therefore begged— will this singular proxy again ring the bell when a crimson tide is about to turn? Read the rest of this entry »
Housing: Time to Pull the Plug on Government Support
Posted by Oksana Grebenjuk in Budget, Favourites on Март 22nd, 2010
America’s housing market implosion was the epicenter of the Great Recession. It’s hardly surprising that the federal government directed enormous resources at the market. Besides bailing out vulnerable banks, the federal government nationalized mortgage behemoths Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, opened the lending spigot at the Federal Housing Administration (FHA), passed a first-time home buyers’ tax credit, and established a mortgage modification program for troubled homeowners. The Federal Reserve embarked on a $1.25 trillion purchase of mortgage-backed securities in an effort to engineer lower mortgage rates.
The Herculean efforts may be understandable. But they were a mistake in the early months of the downturn—and now stand as a public policy blunder in the early months of a recovery. That’s a harsh judgment, but it’s way past the time for ending taxpayer support of the housing market.
These policies are geared toward propping up home prices, the definition of a perverse public policy. Artificially holding prices at above-market levels harms new potential buyers, from young adults starting their own households to immigrants putting down stakes in the American Dream. The subsidies wrongly delay the inevitable home market price adjustment to excess supply in many markets across the country. Read the rest of this entry »
Low Rates Needed for ‘Some Time’
Posted by Oksana Grebenjuk in Banks on Март 9th, 2010
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans said low interest rates are likely to be needed “for some time” as high unemployment lingers and inflation stays below his goal.
“With the unemployment rate at 9.7 percent and inflation significantly under my benchmark for price stability, there is no conflict between our policy goals,” Evans said in the text of a speech in Arlington, Virginia. Weakness in the job market, including long-term unemployment, means that “This accommodation will likely be appropriate for some time.”
Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said last month the U.S. economy is in a “nascent” recovery that still requires low interest rates to encourage demand by consumers and businesses once federal stimulus fades. At the same time, policy makers are winding down emergency programs and laying plans for an eventual reduction of the Fed’s balance sheet to prevent an increase in inflation as the economy recovers.
The U.S. unemployment rate held at 9.7 percent in February and payrolls dropped 36,000, less than forecast, a sign that the labor market may be stabilizing after a recession that has eliminated 8.4 million jobs. The economy expanded at a 5.9 percent annual pace in the fourth quarter, the fastest rate in six years, the Commerce Department reported last month. Read the rest of this entry »
Bernanke May Face Concerns on Second Jobless Recovery in Decade
Posted by Oksana Grebenjuk in Budget on Февраль 24th, 2010
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke, in two days of congressional testimony beginning today, will probably face questions on how he plans to end the worst jobs slump since the Great Depression.
Unemployment “will be a big topic” when the Fed chief faces the Senate Banking Committee, Senator Bob Menendez, a New Jersey Democrat and a panel member, said in an interview. “How do we help small- and mid-sized businesses, because they’re the ones who are going to create the jobs? What is he going to do and the Federal Reserve going to do to help grow this economy?”
Democratic leaders are pushing legislation to stimulate the job market amid concerns that unemployment will translate into losses in November elections. The Senate is scheduled to vote today on a $15 billion bill that provides a payroll tax holiday for hiring workers who have been jobless for at least 60 days.
Bernanke will deliver his semi-annual monetary policy report before the House Financial Services Committee at about 10 a.m. today. He plans to testify before the Senate Banking Committee tomorrow. Read the rest of this entry »
If You’re 50 and Haven’t Saved A Dime
Posted by Oksana Grebenjuk in Budget on Февраль 9th, 2010
You’re 50, recently laid off, and now forced to figure out what work you’ll do for the next 15 years or more and how you’ll ever retire.
You’d dreamed of leaving your job at 65, vacationing in Tuscany, taking a trip around the world, or perhaps spending your afternoon on the golf course. But the reality is the economic downturn has tripled the number of unemployed wokers ages 55 to 64 over the past two years, compared with a doubling in the overall unemployment rate.
That means right now, for you, Job Number One is figuring out the next career you’ll embark on. This is the «new retirement» that many Baby Boomers (born between 1946-1964) must now envision.
The rise in job losses, grim prospects for Social Security benefits, and paltry personal savings has created a situation where many Boomers must put off retirement from the workforce because they simply cannot afford it. Even before the recession, the Congressional Budget Office predicted the Social Security Administration would be doling out more money than it took in by 2020, which would deplete the trust fund and cause a severe cut in benefits by 2043. Read the rest of this entry »
Unemployment Rate Holds At 10%
Posted by Oksana Grebenjuk in Budget on Февраль 5th, 2010
The Labor Department released it’s December job’s report on Friday which saw job losses climb once again, after revisions showed a slight gain of 4,000 jobs from November. While the unemployment rate remained at 10%, that figure is a little misleading because it doesn’t factor in the growing number of people that have stopped looking for work.
Nonfarm payroll employment edged down (-85,000) in December, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 10.0 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment fell in construction, manufacturing, and wholesale trade, while temporary help services and health care added jobs.
While the pace of job losses has definitely slowed over the past few months, many economists still expect a weak labor market for years to come. The unemployment rate has doubled from 5% and over 7 million jobs have been lost since December 2007.
That being said many forecasts expect the economy to grow around 3% this year but the main reason will be that there is still a lot of government stimulus that is working it’s way through the system. But while inflation is not a problem for the moment, it is something the central bank will have to deal with eventually. Read the rest of this entry »
Fed holds rates at record low to aid recovery
Posted by Oksana Grebenjuk in Budget on Февраль 2nd, 2010
The Federal Reserve pledged Wednesday to hold rates at record lows to nurture the economic recovery and lower unemployment. But its decision drew a dissent from one member, signaling the Fed’s challenge in deciding when to pull back stimulus money it pumped into the economy.
The Fed’s statement sketched a mixed picture of the economy. Pointing to weakness, it noted that bank lending is contracting. And it dropped a reference in its previous statement to an improving housing market.
But on the positive side, the Fed said business spending on equipment and software seems to be rising. And it said economic activity»continues to strengthen.»
The Fed said it still expects to end a $1.25 trillion program aimed at driving down mortgage rates as scheduled on March 31. Yet it reiterated that it remains open to changing that timetable if necessary.
Reports on home sales this week pointed to a still-fragile housing market. Read the rest of this entry »
The Great Recession Continues
Posted by Oksana Grebenjuk in Budget on Январь 27th, 2010
The December jobs report has doused the hope that we were at the beginning of a sustained economic recovery.
The unemployment rate managed to hold at 10% in December only because of an extraordinary shrinkage in the labor force: Some 661,000 gave up looking for a job.
Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) nonfarm payroll data indicate that December job losses totaled 85,000. But the bureau’s household survey, a better and more comprehensive measure of both the unemployed and underemployed, indicated a loss of 589,000 jobs. Since the Great Recession began in 2007, some 8.6 million jobs have been lost, according to the bureau; and small businesses, the normal source for new jobs, are still shedding workers. Fewer than 10% added employees, while more than 20% cut back—and the cuts averaged nearly twice as many per firm as the hires at the expanding companies.
Unemployment, in short, has graduated from being a difficulty, a worry. It is now a catastrophe, with some 15.3 million Americans out of work, according to the BLS. Read the rest of this entry »
Economy Should Continue Growing In 2010
Posted by Oksana Grebenjuk in Budget on Январь 21st, 2010
A number of forecasts show the economy should continue it’s momentum from the end of 2009 into the new year. A number of countries are also expected to show improvement, as the world recovers from the worst global recession in decades.
Rising consumer sentiments should see demand climb as spending levels recover somewhat. The Fed has maintained it’s stance on keeping interest rates near zero for an extended period of time which should also help the financial system to stabilize further.
However, the labor situation is still a major cause for concern even though unemployment flattened out last month, the upcoming jobs report on Friday could be a major indicator on far recovery efforts have really come. There are a number skeptics on whether unemployment has yet to bottom out, only a few months ago there were quite a few predictions that the unemployment rate could rise as high as 13% before job creation began again. Read the rest of this entry »
Economic survey: Job losses to bottom out in 1Q
Posted by Oksana Grebenjuk in Budget on Ноябрь 27th, 2009
Economists expect the joblessness that has weighed down the nation’s economic recovery will start to slowly abate in 2010, but they predict consumers will continue to keep a tight rein on spending, according to a new survey.
While signs have pointed to the end of the recession, unemployment remains rampant. The national unemployment rate jumped to 10.2 percent in October, the highest in 26 years. About 9 million people currently receive unemployment benefits.
The November outlook by the National Association for Business Economics, which is set to be released Monday, shows economists expect net employment losses to bottom out in the first quarter of next year. Employers are seen starting to add to their payrolls after that.
«While the recovery has been jobless so far, that should soon change,»said Lynn Reaser, NABE’s president and chief economist at Point Loma Nazarene University.»Within the next few months, companies should be adding instead of cutting jobs.» Read the rest of this entry »
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