Posts Tagged unemployment
Consumer Spending in U.S. Rises More Than Forecast
Posted by Tetyana Matychak in Favourites, Trading Markets on August 30th, 2010
Consumer spending in the U.S. rose more than forecast in July, exceeding gains in incomes, a sign the improvement will not last without more jobs.
Purchases rose 0.4 percent, the most since March, after little change the prior month, Commerce Department figures showed today in Washington. Incomes climbed 0.2 percent, less than projected, and the savings rate dropped.
Disposable incomes, or the money left over after taxes, dropped for the first time since January after adjusting for inflation, showing the lack of jobs is hurting Americans’ spending power. Companies from Intel Corp. to J. Crew Group Inc. are cutting forecasts as unemployment and flagging confidence prompt households to scale back.
“This, so far, is allaying near-term double-dip concerns,” said Derek Holt, an economist at Scotia Capital Inc. in Toronto, referring to fears the world’s largest economy will tip back into a recession. “It nonetheless showcases very lackluster growth in the U.S. economy.”
Stock-index futures fell after the report, extending earlier losses, and Treasury securities rose. The contract of the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index was fell 0.3 percent to 1,060.3 at 8:54 a.m. in New York. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note dropped to 2.60 percent from 2.65 percent late on Aug. 27. Read the rest of this entry »
Housing’s a wreck. Builders rally. Huh?
Posted by Tetyana Matychak in Investing on August 25th, 2010
Existing home sales plummeted in July. New home sales sunk as well, hitting a record low. And even though luxury homebuilder Toll Brothers reported a surprise quarterly profit Wednesday, that was largely due to a tax break. Sales were down slightly from a year ago and orders dropped 16%.
Despite this, some investors appear willing to once again bet that the housing market has hit bottom. Shares of Toll Brothers (TOL) were up more than 2% in early afternoon trading.
The S&P SPDR Homebuilders (XHB) exchange traded fund, which holds other builders such as KB Home (KBH) and Pulte (PHM), as well as building materials makers and home improvement retailers, rose 1.5%.
It’s a strange reaction to say the least. The broad market is down because of more gloomy housing data. But the companies that are most directly tied to the health of the housing market are up?
It doesn’t make a heck of a lot of sense. It may be a case of traders betting for the umpteenth time that this is finally a bottom for housing.
That’s a mistake. Now that the tax credit for homebuyers has expired, it’s difficult to imagine what can juice the real estate market again in the near-term. Read the rest of this entry »
New jobless claims unexpectedly rise by 24,000
Posted by Tetyana Matychak in Budget on April 14th, 2010
New weekly jobless claims unexpectedly rose by 24,000 to 484,000 last week, the government said this morning, increasing worries that high unemployment will stick around for a long time.
Forecasters had expected the new jobless claims number to come in at 430,000.
The four-week moving average, which smooths out volatility in the number, rose by 7,500 last week to 457,750.
Continuing claims rose from 4.57 million to 4.64 million.
Economists suggest the spike in claims could be related to the Easter holiday. Each week, it seems, there’s some sort of anomaly that affects the new jobless claims — the big February snows, the March snapback from the big February snows, the Easter holiday — so it’s hard to get a good handle on the real jobless picture in the U.S. Read the rest of this entry »
Gov’t unveils plan to shrink some home loans
Posted by Tetyana Matychak in Banks, Favourites on March 31st, 2010
Under pressure to stem the foreclosure crisis, the Obama administration launched a plan Friday to reduce the amount some troubled borrowers owe on their home loans and give jobless homeowners a temporary break.
Administration officials cautioned that the plan won’t stop all foreclosures or help all troubled homeowners. Instead, officials said their goal is to meet their original target, announced last year, of helping 3 million to 4 million borrowers avoid foreclosure.
The new effort is designed to help two groups:
- Borrowers who owe more on their loans than their houses are worth. Nearly 15 million homeowners fall into this category, according to Moody’s Analytics. About 10 million of them owe at least 20 percent more than their house’s current value.
These people would be helped in either of two ways: Their mortgage companies can cut the total amount they owe on their mortgage. Or they can refinance into loans backed by the Federal Housing Administration, which insures loans against default. The FHA will get $14 billion in incentive money from the federal bailout fund. Read the rest of this entry »
10 reasons why this is not a bull market
Posted by Tetyana Matychak in Fund Markets on March 26th, 2010
Kevin Cassidy, a senior credit analyst at Moody’s, recently referenced the $700 billion in risky high-yield corporate debt on the horizon and offered, “An avalanche is brewing in 2012 and beyond if companies don’t get out in front of this.”
Minyanville offered a similar assessment entering September 2008 as $871 billion of corporate debt was set to mature into year-end. We opined there were two plausible scenarios; a credit cancer that would chew through the financial body, or a car crash that would crack the system under the weight of an indebted world. Read Minyanville’s “Pirate’s Booty.”
I agree that another avalanche is building atop Credit Mountain; while risk transferred from corporate coffers to sovereign strongboxes, the magnitude is cumulative in cause and effect. And despite scary parallels between the 2008 financial crisis and our modern day sequel, savvy investors continue to monitor corporate credit as a timing mechanism for an equity downturn.
As stocks grind to fresh 18-month highs, we’re left to wonder if the upside window of opportunity will remain open until corporations are again forced to pay their bar tab. Credit markets are exhibiting surreal strength and through that lens and that lens alone, the equity market has plenty of room to run.
The question is therefore begged– will this singular proxy again ring the bell when a crimson tide is about to turn? Read the rest of this entry »
Housing: Time to Pull the Plug on Government Support
Posted by Tetyana Matychak in Budget, Favourites on March 22nd, 2010
America’s housing market implosion was the epicenter of the Great Recession. It’s hardly surprising that the federal government directed enormous resources at the market. Besides bailing out vulnerable banks, the federal government nationalized mortgage behemoths Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, opened the lending spigot at the Federal Housing Administration (FHA), passed a first-time home buyers’ tax credit, and established a mortgage modification program for troubled homeowners. The Federal Reserve embarked on a $1.25 trillion purchase of mortgage-backed securities in an effort to engineer lower mortgage rates.
The Herculean efforts may be understandable. But they were a mistake in the early months of the downturn—and now stand as a public policy blunder in the early months of a recovery. That’s a harsh judgment, but it’s way past the time for ending taxpayer support of the housing market.
These policies are geared toward propping up home prices, the definition of a perverse public policy. Artificially holding prices at above-market levels harms new potential buyers, from young adults starting their own households to immigrants putting down stakes in the American Dream. The subsidies wrongly delay the inevitable home market price adjustment to excess supply in many markets across the country. Read the rest of this entry »
Low Rates Needed for ‘Some Time’
Posted by Tetyana Matychak in Banks on March 9th, 2010
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans said low interest rates are likely to be needed “for some time” as high unemployment lingers and inflation stays below his goal.
“With the unemployment rate at 9.7 percent and inflation significantly under my benchmark for price stability, there is no conflict between our policy goals,” Evans said in the text of a speech in Arlington, Virginia. Weakness in the job market, including long-term unemployment, means that “This accommodation will likely be appropriate for some time.”
Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said last month the U.S. economy is in a “nascent” recovery that still requires low interest rates to encourage demand by consumers and businesses once federal stimulus fades. At the same time, policy makers are winding down emergency programs and laying plans for an eventual reduction of the Fed’s balance sheet to prevent an increase in inflation as the economy recovers.
The U.S. unemployment rate held at 9.7 percent in February and payrolls dropped 36,000, less than forecast, a sign that the labor market may be stabilizing after a recession that has eliminated 8.4 million jobs. The economy expanded at a 5.9 percent annual pace in the fourth quarter, the fastest rate in six years, the Commerce Department reported last month. Read the rest of this entry »
Bernanke May Face Concerns on Second Jobless Recovery in Decade
Posted by Tetyana Matychak in Budget on February 24th, 2010
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke, in two days of congressional testimony beginning today, will probably face questions on how he plans to end the worst jobs slump since the Great Depression.
Unemployment “will be a big topic” when the Fed chief faces the Senate Banking Committee, Senator Bob Menendez, a New Jersey Democrat and a panel member, said in an interview. “How do we help small- and mid-sized businesses, because they’re the ones who are going to create the jobs? What is he going to do and the Federal Reserve going to do to help grow this economy?”
Democratic leaders are pushing legislation to stimulate the job market amid concerns that unemployment will translate into losses in November elections. The Senate is scheduled to vote today on a $15 billion bill that provides a payroll tax holiday for hiring workers who have been jobless for at least 60 days.
Bernanke will deliver his semi-annual monetary policy report before the House Financial Services Committee at about 10 a.m. today. He plans to testify before the Senate Banking Committee tomorrow. Read the rest of this entry »
If You’re 50 and Haven’t Saved A Dime
Posted by Tetyana Matychak in Budget on February 9th, 2010
You’re 50, recently laid off, and now forced to figure out what work you’ll do for the next 15 years or more and how you’ll ever retire.
You’d dreamed of leaving your job at 65, vacationing in Tuscany, taking a trip around the world, or perhaps spending your afternoon on the golf course. But the reality is the economic downturn has tripled the number of unemployed wokers ages 55 to 64 over the past two years, compared with a doubling in the overall unemployment rate.
That means right now, for you, Job Number One is figuring out the next career you’ll embark on. This is the “new retirement” that many Baby Boomers (born between 1946-1964) must now envision.
The rise in job losses, grim prospects for Social Security benefits, and paltry personal savings has created a situation where many Boomers must put off retirement from the workforce because they simply cannot afford it. Even before the recession, the Congressional Budget Office predicted the Social Security Administration would be doling out more money than it took in by 2020, which would deplete the trust fund and cause a severe cut in benefits by 2043. Read the rest of this entry »
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Consumer Spending in U.S. Rises More Than Forecast
30 August 2010
Monetary Policy Gets No Respect
19 July 2010
Stocks May Surprise By Year-End
5 July 2010
Is A Global Reserve Currency A Necessity?
28 June 2010
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