Posts Tagged tax credit

Jobs: Will a May Surge Be Followed by a June Slump?

With Census hiring peaking in May, Action Economics expects a gain of 480,000 U.S. jobs. But a fall-off in Census jobs could lead to a payrolls decline in June.

Action Economics expects U.S. nonfarm payrolls to surge by 480,000 in the government’s May employment report, scheduled for release on June 4, with a hefty boost of 420,000 from Census hiring and a 400,000 rise for government payrolls, alongside an 80,000 rise in private payrolls—the fifth straight monthly increase—that would come in below the surprisingly large 231,000 increase in April and the 174,000 gain in March.

We also expect the jobless rate to moderate to 9.8 percent from the surprising pop to 9.9 percent in April, while the average workweek holds at 34.1 hours and average hourly earnings post a 0.1 percent gain.

The industry mix should reveal the 400,000 surge in government hiring mentioned earlier, alongside a 10,000 rise in goods-producing employment that includes a 20,000 gain in factory employment, and a 70,000 gain in service-sector jobs excluding government. Though construction employment has risen in each of the previous two months, the gains may reflect the boost in April housing-sector activity spurred by the Apr. 30 expiration of the home buyers’ tax credit, and could prove temporary. Read the rest of this entry »

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Housing: Time to Pull the Plug on Government Support

America’s housing market implosion was the epicenter of the Great Recession. It’s hardly surprising that the federal government directed enormous resources at the market. Besides bailing out vulnerable banks, the federal government nationalized mortgage behemoths Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, opened the lending spigot at the Federal Housing Administration (FHA), passed a first-time home buyers’ tax credit, and established a mortgage modification program for troubled homeowners. The Federal Reserve embarked on a $1.25 trillion purchase of mortgage-backed securities in an effort to engineer lower mortgage rates.

The Herculean efforts may be understandable. But they were a mistake in the early months of the downturn—and now stand as a public policy blunder in the early months of a recovery. That’s a harsh judgment, but it’s way past the time for ending taxpayer support of the housing market.

These policies are geared toward propping up home prices, the definition of a perverse public policy. Artificially holding prices at above-market levels harms new potential buyers, from young adults starting their own households to immigrants putting down stakes in the American Dream. The subsidies wrongly delay the inevitable home market price adjustment to excess supply in many markets across the country. Read the rest of this entry »

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