Posts Tagged inflation
Consumer Spending in U.S. Rises More Than Forecast
Posted by Tetyana Matychak in Favourites, Trading Markets on August 30th, 2010
Consumer spending in the U.S. rose more than forecast in July, exceeding gains in incomes, a sign the improvement will not last without more jobs.
Purchases rose 0.4 percent, the most since March, after little change the prior month, Commerce Department figures showed today in Washington. Incomes climbed 0.2 percent, less than projected, and the savings rate dropped.
Disposable incomes, or the money left over after taxes, dropped for the first time since January after adjusting for inflation, showing the lack of jobs is hurting Americans’ spending power. Companies from Intel Corp. to J. Crew Group Inc. are cutting forecasts as unemployment and flagging confidence prompt households to scale back.
“This, so far, is allaying near-term double-dip concerns,” said Derek Holt, an economist at Scotia Capital Inc. in Toronto, referring to fears the world’s largest economy will tip back into a recession. “It nonetheless showcases very lackluster growth in the U.S. economy.”
Stock-index futures fell after the report, extending earlier losses, and Treasury securities rose. The contract of the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index was fell 0.3 percent to 1,060.3 at 8:54 a.m. in New York. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note dropped to 2.60 percent from 2.65 percent late on Aug. 27. Read the rest of this entry »
Investing In South Korea: Why This Emerging Market Is A Perfect Contrarian Opportunity
Posted by Tetyana Matychak in Investing on August 27th, 2010
The mere mention of this country’s name can cause the “Risk-o-Meter” to nudge higher. But it’s got nothing to do with the nation’s own economy or growth prospects.
Rather, the problem resides to its immediate north in the shape of the contentious Kim Jong-Il and the saber-rattling North Koreans. Their South Korean neighbors live with the constant threat of violence erupting at any moment – especially after North Korea allegedly torpedoed one of South Korea’s warships in March.
But the likelihood of a full-blown war is slim. Why? Because the United States still has some 28,500 troops in South Korea. And thanks to the long-standing U.S.-South Korea alliance, any North Korean attack would effectively be an attack upon the United States, too.
Even Kim Jong-Il knows that’s a bad idea and would end disastrously for his rogue nation.
And for investors, the overblown geopolitical climate is just one reason why I’m convinced that now is the perfect time to buy into this contrarian situation. But there are more… Read the rest of this entry »
ECB Governor: Rates On Hold
Posted by Tetyana Matychak in Banks on June 14th, 2010
European Central Bank governor Athanasios Orphanides indicated in an interview with Dow Jones Newswires that interest rates in the euro zone will remain on hold for many months, urging European politicians to tackle yawning inefficiencies in fiscal governance.
If Europe’s leaders fail to get their act together, then another financial crisis or debt crisis may well be around the corner, he warned.
Speaking in an interview following the ECB’s policy-setting meeting on Thursday, Mr. Orphanides said the outlook for consumer price inflation in the euro zone remains benign, despite the recent uptick in prices.
Core inflation, which excludes volatile components such as energy and food, has been trending down, he said, pointing to slack private consumption in the 16 countries that make up the euro zone.
“In light of these developments, I do not view high inflation as a concern,” said Mr. Orphanides, who was born in Cyprus and educated at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Read the rest of this entry »
Deflation Comes To Europe
Posted by Tetyana Matychak in Budget, Favourites on June 11th, 2010
Many economists regard deflation as more dangerous than inflation, as it encourages consumers to delay purchases as they wait for a lower price tomorrow. When consumers put off buying in anticipation of lower prices it creates a downward spiral of lower demand followed by lower production.
Deflation harms debtors as well. Countries like Greece have to pay back the money they borrowed with money that will be more expensive next year. Paying down debt with cheaper money slows economic growth. Japan has struggled with deflation for the last two decades, as growth in Japan faltered.
A sign that deflation is near comes from countries like Ireland and Spain that saw prices fall in May. Inflation was below 1 percent in five other euro zone countries.
There are four causes of deflation:
Decrease in the money supply
Increase in demand for money
Increase in supply of goods
Decrease in demand for goods Read the rest of this entry »
Canada’s recession less severe than other G7 countries
Posted by Tetyana Matychak in Trading Markets on April 16th, 2010
Canada experienced a recession that was less severe and shorter than in the other Group of Seven nations, Statistics Canada said Thursday in a special report. Furthermore, it was nowhere near as “severe” or nearly as long as the downturns the country faced in the early 1980s and 1990s.
The key reason, the agency said, was that Canadian companies and governments had better balance sheets compared to their industrialized peers going into the start of the recession — the result of advantageous terms of trade from the commodity bull run.
Between the third quarter of 2008 and the third quarter of 2009, real GDP in Canada fell by 3.3%, compared to a total decline of 3.7% in the United States and even larger declines in Europe and Japan.
“To the degree that the 2008-2009 global recession originated in balance sheets, strong balance sheets in Canada stood it in good stead to endure the recession and emerge into recovery,” said Philip Cross, the agency’s chief economic analyst, in the report. “The recession was shorter and milder in Canada than in other G7 nations, partly because the flow of credit was not disrupted as it was in other nations and a large pool of savings was available to finance spending when income fell temporarily.” Read the rest of this entry »
Europe’s Next Great Test
Posted by Tetyana Matychak in Business on March 29th, 2010
European leaders may have bought some time by backing in principle a bailout for Greece, but even if the money is handed over, it will be no silver bullet for Greece or for the euro zone.
That’s because the euro zone’s problems are not limited to Greece and not solely related to government debt and budget deficits.
Right now, Greece’s debt burden is unsustainable. With government debt equivalent to more than the country’s annual output and the government paying close to 6.5% to borrow money, Greece’s debt burden is not just growing but accelerating dangerously.
The best a bailout can do is to buy time to reduce those interest rates to give the government time to slash its deficits and set the debt on a downward path.
Yet it is the euro zone’s second challenge that is at once more widespread and more intractable. That is the euro zone’s competitiveness challenge: structurally weak economies, in southern Europe and elsewhere, locked by a common currency to Germany’s low inflation rate and economic stringency. Read the rest of this entry »
Low Rates Needed for ‘Some Time’
Posted by Tetyana Matychak in Banks on March 9th, 2010
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans said low interest rates are likely to be needed “for some time” as high unemployment lingers and inflation stays below his goal.
“With the unemployment rate at 9.7 percent and inflation significantly under my benchmark for price stability, there is no conflict between our policy goals,” Evans said in the text of a speech in Arlington, Virginia. Weakness in the job market, including long-term unemployment, means that “This accommodation will likely be appropriate for some time.”
Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said last month the U.S. economy is in a “nascent” recovery that still requires low interest rates to encourage demand by consumers and businesses once federal stimulus fades. At the same time, policy makers are winding down emergency programs and laying plans for an eventual reduction of the Fed’s balance sheet to prevent an increase in inflation as the economy recovers.
The U.S. unemployment rate held at 9.7 percent in February and payrolls dropped 36,000, less than forecast, a sign that the labor market may be stabilizing after a recession that has eliminated 8.4 million jobs. The economy expanded at a 5.9 percent annual pace in the fourth quarter, the fastest rate in six years, the Commerce Department reported last month. Read the rest of this entry »
China takes new steps to curb bank lending
Posted by Tetyana Matychak in Banks on January 15th, 2010
China took new steps Tuesday to control bank lending, ordering institutions to set aside more reserves in a move to avert a surge in credit that Beijing worries might fuel inflation or asset price bubbles.
China’s nascent rebound from the global crisis was fueled by a flood of lending by state-owned banks last year. Bankers cut lending under government orders toward the end of 2009 but regulators worry credit might rebound this year.
The move indicates Beijing is confident growth can be sustained and has shifted focus to preventing financial excesses and economic overheating. The government is forecasting growth of 8.3 percent for 2009, up from a low of 6.1 percent for the first quarter of the year.
The central bank raised the amount of reserves that banks must hold by 0.5 percent to 15 percent of their deposits. Also Tuesday, the bank raised interest rates paid on one-year bills for the first time since August to absorb money from the market and cool credit growth.
“This series of moves by the central bank provides a clear sign that policymakers are following through on their pledge to guide credit in order to pre-empt rising inflation and avoid asset price bubbles,”said Jing Ulrich, chairwoman of China equities for J.P. Morgan, in a report. Read the rest of this entry »
How much you’ll need in retirement
Posted by Tetyana Matychak in Budget, Favourites on January 8th, 2010
Conventional wisdom says you need 80% of your pre-retirement income. But ensuring a comfortable retirement will take more than just a rule of thumb.
Question: I always heard that you will need 80% or so of your working salary to live on in retirement. But is that a percentage of your gross income or your take-home pay? –Mary Taylor, Chalfont, Pennsylvania
Answer: This rule of thumb has long confused many people who are trying to get a handle on their retirement planning. But the question of how much income you’ll need to live comfortably after calling it a career has taken on a special urgency the last year or so as retirement account balances wilted during the market’s meltdown.
After all, if you earn roughly $100,000 a year and take home, say, $80,000 after taxes, the difference between requiring 80% of your gross income ($80,000) and 80% of your net income after taxes ($64,000) is substantial. Unless you’ve got a pretty sizeable nest egg, the difference between coming up with $80,000 a year (plus inflation increases to maintain purchasing power) and $64,000 can have a significant impact on whether your money can support you the rest of your life. Read the rest of this entry »
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Consumer Spending in U.S. Rises More Than Forecast
30 August 2010
Monetary Policy Gets No Respect
19 July 2010
Stocks May Surprise By Year-End
5 July 2010
Is A Global Reserve Currency A Necessity?
28 June 2010
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