Posts Tagged index
Stocks May Surprise By Year-End
Posted by Tetyana Matychak in Favourites, Fund Markets on July 5th, 2010
Economic news has been weak lately. Financial markets have performed poorly for over two months. Dow Theory “sell signals” have been issued. You may have heard a “death cross” is on the way. It is nearly impossible to find a bull among the growing sloth of bears. We are concerned about both the fundamentals and the technicals. However, in the context of history the current situation is not all that unusual.
On the economic front, the Wall Street Journal helps put recent weak economic numbers in some perspective. Stocks did quite well from late 2002 to late 2007. They also did well from 1992 to 1994.
Pauses aren’t uncommon early in a recovery. After rebounding from recession in late 2001 and early 2002, the economy had a 12-month stretch in which it grew at a paltry 1.5% annual rate, sparking fears of a double-dip recession. In late 1991, growth waned after a recovery had started. In the past 12 months, the economy has gotten off to a faster start than in 2002.
From CNBC: Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said that the recent stock market decline is “typical” of a recovery, and that international instability has more to do with the recent decline than problems in the United States. “What we’re looking at is an invisible wall, which we’ve run into here. Which, essentially, as far as I can see, is a typical pause that occurs in an economic recovery,” Greenspan said in an interview with CNBC. “Ordinarily we’re saying that the stock market is driven by economic events, I think it’s more in the reverse.” Read the rest of this entry »
4 Investment Ideas That Provide Income
Posted by Tetyana Matychak in Investing on July 1st, 2010
As of this moment, the S&P/TSX Composite index is down 384.58 point or -3.27% year to date. The S&P 500 is down 67.32 or -6.04% year to date. That is your market update. When the global economic outlook appears uncertain and on the brink of another recession, equity markets reflect this reality in terms of greater than normal volatility. In markets like these, what we should be looking for are non-correlated assets and managers that have demonstrated the expertise to preserve capital during uncertain times like today.
In addition, one should also be focusing their efforts on receiving some form of income while the economic climate sorts itself. The following 4 ideas should hopefully accomplish both those goals. While we cant speak to the best/worst time to buy/sell particular securities, as that depends on one’s personal circumstances, the approach we usually take, especially with closed end funds, is to purchase them when they are trading at the steeper than normal discount to their Net Asset Value (NAV). The only other thing we would like to add is that you should do you own due diligence.
Trident Performance Corp.
This closed end fund is managed by CI Investments. Its investment objective is to provide tax-efficient risk-adjusted long term rates of return by obtaining exposure to a Global Macroeconomic Portfolio, advised by Trident Investment Management. Co-Founded in 1998, by Nandu Narayanan, Trident Investment Management seeks to exploit macroeconomic trends to generate attractive risk-adjusted rates of return with low or negative correlation to traditional ‘long’ investments. This is exactly what Mr. Narayanan did during the financial crisis, when the CI Global Opportunities Fund recorded positive performance of 109% in 2007 and 42.6% in 2008. Since inception in March 1995, the fund has averaged 19.69% as of the end of May 31, 2010. Read the rest of this entry »
Stock futures fall after euro hits new 4-year low
Posted by Tetyana Matychak in Fund Markets on June 1st, 2010
Stock futures tumbled Tuesday after the euro fell to a new four-year low. Major U.S. indexes are set to resume their slide due to fresh concerns about the health of Europe’s economic recovery. Stocks fell late Friday ahead of the long holiday weekend after Fitch Ratings cut its view on Spain’s debt.
A slowdown in manufacturing in China also worried investors. U.S. traders will get a reading on the domestic manufacturing sector after the market opens.
The Dow Jones industrial average fell 122 points Friday. Dow futures are down another 120 points early Monday.
The euro fell as low as $1.2112 before easing off that low to $1.2155. Markets worldwide have been tracking the euro, the currency used by 16 countries in Europe. The euro has been seen as an indication for confidence in whether countries like Greece, Spain and Portugal will be able to cut spending to contain mounting debt without stalling a recovery.
Investors in recent weeks have used any signs of weakening around the world to sell stocks and move into safe-haven investments like the dollar and U.S. Treasurys. Read the rest of this entry »
Euro-zone troubles may keep stocks on edge
Posted by Tetyana Matychak in Fund Markets on May 17th, 2010
Stocks could face more volatility this week as growing doubts about whether Europe can solve its deepening debt crisis are likely to take center stage again.
A $1 trillion rescue package unveiled at the week’s start gave only temporary relief to investors, who are increasingly worried about the impact of the crisis on the global recovery and the euro.
Wall Street also will be anxious to see the results from retailers next week, and will pay special attention to their forecasts for the rest of the year. Wal-Mart Stores (WMT.N) and Lowe’s Co (LOW.N) are among companies expected to report.
Below-par results on Friday from retailers, including Nordstrom (JWN.N) and J.C. Penney Co Inc (JCP.N), cast some doubt on the consumer’s health.
The week also brings government data on inflation, which is expected to remain tame, and on housing, a sector still struggling to recover from the country’s worst economic downturn since the 1930s.
The three major U.S. stock indexes ended Friday’s session with losses ranging from 1.5 percent to 2 percent amid worries over Europe’s debt problems. The CBOE Volatility Index .VIX or VIX, which is Wall Street’s fear gauge, jumped 17.1 percent. Commodity prices also dropped sharply, with oil sliding to a three-month low below $72 per barrel. The euro fell to an 18-month low against the dollar. Read the rest of this entry »
European Stocks Gain Ground
Posted by Tetyana Matychak in Fund Markets on April 20th, 2010
European stocks traded higher Tuesday, following Monday’s rally on Wall Street, helped by upbeat earnings from Citigroup and news that the Securities and Exchange Commission voted 3-2 in favor of filing civil fraud charges against Goldman Sachs.
The U.K. FTSE 100 index was 0.6% higher at 5760.41, Germany’s DAX rose 0.7% to 6202.92 and France’s CAC-40 index gained 0.6% to 3992.72.
“Last week’s SEC ruling against Goldman Sachs had certainly been weighing on the banks and, in turn, pressuring the major indices, but traders are now looking forward to Goldman’s earnings, which are due for release later today, and some solid numbers here have the potential to help extend the rally once again,” said Ben Potter, research analyst at IG Markets.
On Monday, U.S. stocks edged higher, recovering some of the Friday decline caused partly by the SEC’s civil fraud charges against Goldman Sachs, as strong earnings from Citigroup and analysts’ positive comments on DuPont and McDonald’s encouraged investors.
News that the U.S. Conference Board’s index of leading economic indicators posted a large gain in March also helped, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.7% to 11,092.1. The Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.1% to 2480.1, but the Standard & Poor’s 500 index climbed 0.5% to 1197.6. Read the rest of this entry »
10 reasons why this is not a bull market
Posted by Tetyana Matychak in Fund Markets on March 26th, 2010
Kevin Cassidy, a senior credit analyst at Moody’s, recently referenced the $700 billion in risky high-yield corporate debt on the horizon and offered, “An avalanche is brewing in 2012 and beyond if companies don’t get out in front of this.”
Minyanville offered a similar assessment entering September 2008 as $871 billion of corporate debt was set to mature into year-end. We opined there were two plausible scenarios; a credit cancer that would chew through the financial body, or a car crash that would crack the system under the weight of an indebted world. Read Minyanville’s “Pirate’s Booty.”
I agree that another avalanche is building atop Credit Mountain; while risk transferred from corporate coffers to sovereign strongboxes, the magnitude is cumulative in cause and effect. And despite scary parallels between the 2008 financial crisis and our modern day sequel, savvy investors continue to monitor corporate credit as a timing mechanism for an equity downturn.
As stocks grind to fresh 18-month highs, we’re left to wonder if the upside window of opportunity will remain open until corporations are again forced to pay their bar tab. Credit markets are exhibiting surreal strength and through that lens and that lens alone, the equity market has plenty of room to run.
The question is therefore begged– will this singular proxy again ring the bell when a crimson tide is about to turn? Read the rest of this entry »
Stock investors ask: What’s the next big thing?
Posted by Tetyana Matychak in Fund Markets on March 11th, 2010
A year after the stock market began its comeback from 12-year lows, investors are looking for the next big thing.
Stocks have lost some of the momentum that propelled the Dow Jones industrial average up 61.4 percent from its close of 6,547 on March 9, 2009. That’s natural – bull markets tend to slow down as they head into their second year. But the lethargic pace of the economic recovery has also been a bit of a drag on stocks. And so investors are waiting for signs that the economy is ready to put up some solid, sustainable growth numbers.
The most likely trigger: job growth. Investors need to see a Labor Department report that says employers are creating more jobs than they’re cutting.
Until then, investors are going to stay cautious. Analysts say the market is likely to move sideways or drift higher, as it’s been doing over the past few weeks. Tuesday’s trading fit the pattern of modest moves. The Dow rose nearly 12 points. The average is up 1.3 percent so far this year.
But that doesn’t mean the market isn’t going to have its fitful moments. And it certainly has volatile industries that are expected to move the rest of the market. On Tuesday, the financial companies that led stocks higher in the past year again drove trading. Analysts said financial shares rallied as investors reacted to rumors that the government might prohibit the trades known as short sales in stocks of companies it owns. The government has large stakes in Citigroup Inc., American International Group Inc. and mortgage companies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac after bailing them out during the 2008 financial crisis. Read the rest of this entry »
Housing Prices Fall at Slower Pace
Posted by Tetyana Matychak in Budget on February 25th, 2010
Home prices kept falling, but at a slower rate, at the end of last year as the housing market continued to stabilize.
The national S&P/Case-Shiller home-price index declined 2.5% in the fourth quarter, compared with the same period a year earlier, according to a report released Tuesday. The slight drop is a clear improvement from earlier in the recession. In the fourth quarter of 2008, for example, home prices fell 18.2% from the same period in 2007.
“Overall, this report suggests that the recent positive momentum in the U.S. housing market is gaining further traction and underscores that home prices are continuing to stabilize,” Millan Mulraine, a TD Securities analyst, wrote in a note to clients. “As such, we may only be a few months away before we see a monthly gain in national home prices.”
The month-to-month change in home prices for a composite index of 20 housing markets that S&P/Case-Shiller tracks showed that home prices rose 0.3% in December from the prior month, adjusted for normal seasonal variation. That measure of home prices also rose 0.3% in November.Prices fell in just five of the 20 markets included in the survey, remained flat in one and rose in the other 14. Read the rest of this entry »
How funds can hit such different notes
Posted by Tetyana Matychak in Fund Markets on January 20th, 2010
Individual investors are often told that index-linked funds are better for them than actively managed offerings. That may be true, but index funds carry their own risks that can catch the unsuspecting.
Look, for example, at two exchange-traded funds that track the same international-stock index — and yet their results last year are significantly different.
IShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index ETF (EEM 41.95, -0.49, -1.16%) and Vanguard
Emerging Markets ETF (VWO 41.70, -0.50, -1.18%) both track the MSCI Emerging Markets
Index. But the Vanguard ETF gained just over 76% last year, while the iShares offering was up nearly 72%. The Index itself was up 78.5%.
The difference highlights the varied results index funds can produce and offers a lesson to investors about the best way to choose an indexed investment.
How can investors tell which ETF best tracks its benchmark index and also come to realize that not all indexes are the same? The answer isn’t so straightforward. Read the rest of this entry »
Stronger dollar, weak economic data pummels stocks
Posted by Tetyana Matychak in Fund Markets on November 26th, 2009
A stronger dollar and more discouraging signs of a subdued economic recovery triggered a broad sell-off in stocks.
Major indexes tumbled more than 1 percent Thursday, including the Dow Jones industrials, which fell about 133 points.
Energy and material stocks showed the biggest losses as a jump in the dollar sent commodity prices tumbling. Meanwhile, an analyst’s downgrade of the chip sector pulled technology shares sharply lower.
Analysts said the dollar was the biggest force behind Thursday’s trading, as it has been in recent months. A stronger dollar makes commodities more expensive to foreign buyers, and companies that produce the commodities make less money from them.
“There might be a little fear out there about dollar strengthening, as well as some natural profit-taking opportunities,”said Dan Cook, senior market analyst at IG Markets Inc. in Chicago.”We’ve been on an amazing run.” Read the rest of this entry »
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Consumer Spending in U.S. Rises More Than Forecast
30 August 2010
Monetary Policy Gets No Respect
19 July 2010Stocks May Surprise By Year-End
5 July 2010
Is A Global Reserve Currency A Necessity?
28 June 2010
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