Posts Tagged IMF

Greek uncertainty hurts euro

Confusion about the timing and amount of emergency aid for Greece prompted investors to sell the euro on Monday as markets worried whether the euro zone country will manage to avert a debt default.

The euro dipped briefly below $1.33, falling against the greenback for the seventh trading session in the last eight. It also hit a three-month low against sterling on investor concern about potential conditions attached to a loan for Greece.

The Federal Reserve’s policy meeting this week drew renewed attention to when the U.S. central bank will likely begin raising interest rates. The dollar rose above 94 yen as investors bet the Fed would raise rates before year end, well ahead of any move by the Bank of Japan.

Confusion over aid for debt-stricken Greece arose on Monday after German Chancellor Angela Merkel said the euro zone member, which on Friday had requested emergency aid, must commit to further savings measures and show it can return to a sustainable economic path before Germany can approve aid.

Greece had tried to reassure investors over the weekend that the 45 billion euros ($60.5 billion) in aid from the European Union and the International Monetary Fund would arrive in time to avert the euro zone’s first sovereign default. Read the rest of this entry »

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Greek Problems Will Drive Integration

European politicians seem to have learned from their counterparts in the Obama administration. Rahm Emanuel, Barack Obama’s tough-minded chief of staff, surveyed the inherited wreckage of the American economy, and told the President, «You never want a serious crisis to go to waste.» No one can accuse the EU politicians and their bureaucrats of wasting the serious crisis created for the eurozone by Greek profligacy.

Not that they have solved it quite yet. Mere talk of bailouts and International Monetary Fund intervention didn’t satisfy the markets, which remained sufficiently wary to levy so hefty a charge on Greeks bearing bonds that the Greek government capitulated, and publicly rattled its begging bowl. It will soon be filled by a euro-zone-IMF consortium.

For the proponents of greater European integration Greece’s crisis is their opportunity to push their agenda further than they would have dreamed possible had the Greeks not cooked their books and gone on a borrowing binge to support the lavish life style of the ever-increasing number of government employees.

It was no secret that a common currency and a one-size-fits-all interest rate would sooner or later run into problems in the absence of a unified fiscal policy. Nor did anyone really believe that the 3% limit on the deficit:GDP ratio contained in the Growth and Stability pact was more than a sop to the Germans for surrendering their stable Deutschemark. But so long as the world’s economies were booming, this kink in the armor of Europe’s integrationists was of little consequence. Germany’s export machine kept rolling, Greek consumers kept importing, borrowing at attractive rates to pay for the imports, and all seemed well. Read the rest of this entry »

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Greek Two-Year Notes Rise

Greek two-year notes posted their first weekly advance since March after the European Union and the International Monetary Fund agreed to a 45 billion-euro ($61 billion) plan to help Greece avoid a default.

The two-year yield fell the most on record on April 12, a day after the accord was announced, before the notes pared gains on concern the aid will be delayed as national parliaments vote on the proposals. The securities recovered after Prime Minister George Papandreou moved closer to triggering the package by arranging a meeting with the European Commission, European Central Bank and IMF for April 19.

“Greece rallied on this news and will continue to do so with every positive step toward access to ongoing official support,” said Giles Gale, a fixed-income strategist at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc in London. “Every false step, the main risks lying in the European political process, will push yields higher.”

Two-year yields fell 27 basis points to 6.89 percent as of 5 p.m. in London yesterday, after rising 188 basis points the previous week. Greek 10-year yields rose for a third week, adding 26 basis points to 7.47 percent.

Greece’s budget deficit, at 12.9 percent of gross domestic product, is the largest in the EU. The country’s failure to convince investors it can narrow the gap helped send the yield premium for Greek 10-year bonds over similar-maturity German bunds, the region’s benchmark government securities, to 442 basis points on April 8, the most since the euro’s debut in 1999. Read the rest of this entry »

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10 reasons why this is not a bull market

Kevin Cassidy, a senior credit analyst at Moody’s, recently referenced the $700 billion in risky high-yield corporate debt on the horizon and offered, «An avalanche is brewing in 2012 and beyond if companies don’t get out in front of this.»

Minyanville offered a similar assessment entering September 2008 as $871 billion of corporate debt was set to mature into year-end. We opined there were two plausible scenarios; a credit cancer that would chew through the financial body, or a car crash that would crack the system under the weight of an indebted world. Read Minyanville’s «Pirate’s Booty.»

I agree that another avalanche is building atop Credit Mountain; while risk transferred from corporate coffers to sovereign strongboxes, the magnitude is cumulative in cause and effect. And despite scary parallels between the 2008 financial crisis and our modern day sequel, savvy investors continue to monitor corporate credit as a timing mechanism for an equity downturn.

As stocks grind to fresh 18-month highs, we’re left to wonder if the upside window of opportunity will remain open until corporations are again forced to pay their bar tab. Credit markets are exhibiting surreal strength and through that lens and that lens alone, the equity market has plenty of room to run.

The question is therefore begged— will this singular proxy again ring the bell when a crimson tide is about to turn? Read the rest of this entry »

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WORLD FOREX: Euro Hits 10-Month Low Vs Dollar

The euro dropped to a fresh 10-month low against the dollar in Asia Thursday as investors in the region sold the common currency on growing concerns over fiscal problems in Europe.

The euro fell below $1.3300 to $1.3283, its lowest level since May 7, after People’s Bank of China Vice Gov. Zhu Min said Greece’s debt crisis is just the tip of the iceberg. The comments came after Fitch Ratings downgraded Portugal’s credit rating overnight, adding to worries that other euro-zone members may face such downgrades.

Zhu’s remark provided «already edgy players with the latest reason to sell into the euro downtrend,» said Hideaki Inoue, chief manager of forex and financial products trading at Mitsubishi UFJ Trust and Banking. The common currency could fall to $1.3200 later in the global day, Inoue said.

Other dealers concurred, saying the euro may tumble as many investors believe a summit of European Union leaders beginning later Thursday may highlight divisions on any rescue package for Greece.

Germany, the bloc’s paymaster and the country most opposed to putting aid on the table, has signaled it may support a bailout, but only if the International Monetary Fund plays a substantial role. Read the rest of this entry »

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Greece woes push euro to 10-month low

The euro sank to a 10-month low against the dollar and a lifetime trough versus the Swiss franc on Wednesday as speculation Greece may have a difficult time securing debt aid highlighted instability in the euro zone.

European shares hit their highest since October 2008, following a climb in U.S. stocks, but broader global shares slipped as traders were cautious about taking on big positions ahead of a European Union summit which begins on Thursday.

EU Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn on Wednesday said the union must decide on a way to help debt-laden Greece this week, or run the risk of causing a «serious disruption» for the euro.

His comments came after Germany on Tuesday signaled for the first time that it may accept European financial aid for Greece as a last resort, but only if the IMF is involved and euro zone partners accept tougher budget discipline rules.

Germany had been holding out against proposals to offer Greece bilateral loans because opinion polls show Germans do not want Berlin to be the main paymaster. Read the rest of this entry »

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Sarkozy Says EU Must Back Greece

French President Nicolas Sarkozy said the European Union must support Greece or risk destroying the euro as Prime Minister George Papandreou heads for Paris to lobby support for the debt-laden country.

“If we created the euro, we cannot let a country fall that is in the eurozone,” said Sarkozy, who hosts Papandreou in Paris tomorrow. “Otherwise there was no point in creating the euro. We must support Greece because they are making an effort.”

EU leaders have so far refused to give financial aid to Greece and have ordered the government to cut its budget deficit, the EU’s highest, on its own. While Papandreou says steps taken this past week to slash the shortfall warrant more help from the EU, German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle said today that his country is “not going to write a blank check.”

Papandreou is touring Luxembourg, Berlin, Paris and Washington after his government passed a 4.8 billion euro ($6.5 billion) austerity package yesterday. German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who met him yesterday, said the question of a bailout “absolutely doesn’t arise” and the steps taken to cut the deficit make her optimistic that a rescue won’t be needed. Read the rest of this entry »

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The Greek Tragedy That Changed Europe

Plutus, the Greek god of wealth, did not have an easy life. As the myth goes, Plutus wanted to grant riches only to the «the just, the wise, the men of ordered life.» Zeus blinded him out of jealousy of mankind (and envy of the good), leaving Plutus to indiscriminately distribute his favors.

Modern-day Greece may be just and wise, but it certainly has not had an ordered life. As a result, the great opportunity and wealth bestowed by European integration has been largely squandered. And lower interest rates over the past decade—brought down to German levels through Greece being allowed, rather generously, into the euro zone—led to little more than further deficits and a dangerous buildup of government debt.

Now Plutus wants his money back. Europe is entering unprepared into a serious economic crisis—and the nascent global recovery could easily collapse due to the unsustainable and Ponzi-like buildup of government debt in weaker countries.

At the end of the G7 meeting in Canada last weekend, Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner told reporters, «I just want to underscore they made it clear to us—they, the European authorities—that they will manage this [Greek debt crisis] with great care.» Read the rest of this entry »

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