Posts Tagged IMF
Europe’s Debt Crisis Is About to End
Posted by Tetyana Matychak in Favourites, Trading Markets on May 6th, 2010
With the likes Nouriel Roubini, Jim Rogers and George Soros predicting a disastrous default by Greece and others in the euro zone, the contrarian in me has to ask if they could be very wrong. Sources from the City of London who would not go on the record have told me this week that Greek debt is currently a screaming buy.
They believe huge profits will be made for those holding Greek paper when Germany, the IMF and ECB outline a new rescue package that will convince investors they are serious about drawing a line in the sand on the sovereign debt crisis.
Rumors of a European TARP moment could yet be unfounded but with Merkel now serious about getting to grips with the crisis, investors who stay short Greek debt over the weekend could be scrambling to reverse their positions on Monday morning.
Officials at Greece’s debt agency did not respond to CNBC requests for comments. Fears over the long-term health of the euro zone remain high and it is difficult to argue with those who see the possibility of some members exiting the euro on a long term view.
Adam Cole, the Global Head of FX Strategy at RBC Capital Markets, is a euro bear and thinks we could hit $1.10 or $1.15 versus the dollar over the medium term but suggests an announcement on Greece this weekend could offer temporary respite for the market. Read the rest of this entry »
Greek uncertainty hurts euro
Posted by Tetyana Matychak in Currency on April 27th, 2010
Confusion about the timing and amount of emergency aid for Greece prompted investors to sell the euro on Monday as markets worried whether the euro zone country will manage to avert a debt default.
The euro dipped briefly below $1.33, falling against the greenback for the seventh trading session in the last eight. It also hit a three-month low against sterling on investor concern about potential conditions attached to a loan for Greece.
The Federal Reserve’s policy meeting this week drew renewed attention to when the U.S. central bank will likely begin raising interest rates. The dollar rose above 94 yen as investors bet the Fed would raise rates before year end, well ahead of any move by the Bank of Japan.
Confusion over aid for debt-stricken Greece arose on Monday after German Chancellor Angela Merkel said the euro zone member, which on Friday had requested emergency aid, must commit to further savings measures and show it can return to a sustainable economic path before Germany can approve aid.
Greece had tried to reassure investors over the weekend that the 45 billion euros ($60.5 billion) in aid from the European Union and the International Monetary Fund would arrive in time to avert the euro zone’s first sovereign default. Read the rest of this entry »
Greek Two-Year Notes Rise
Posted by Tetyana Matychak in Fund Markets on April 19th, 2010
Greek two-year notes posted their first weekly advance since March after the European Union and the International Monetary Fund agreed to a 45 billion-euro ($61 billion) plan to help Greece avoid a default.
The two-year yield fell the most on record on April 12, a day after the accord was announced, before the notes pared gains on concern the aid will be delayed as national parliaments vote on the proposals. The securities recovered after Prime Minister George Papandreou moved closer to triggering the package by arranging a meeting with the European Commission, European Central Bank and IMF for April 19.
“Greece rallied on this news and will continue to do so with every positive step toward access to ongoing official support,” said Giles Gale, a fixed-income strategist at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc in London. “Every false step, the main risks lying in the European political process, will push yields higher.”
Two-year yields fell 27 basis points to 6.89 percent as of 5 p.m. in London yesterday, after rising 188 basis points the previous week. Greek 10-year yields rose for a third week, adding 26 basis points to 7.47 percent.
Greece’s budget deficit, at 12.9 percent of gross domestic product, is the largest in the EU. The country’s failure to convince investors it can narrow the gap helped send the yield premium for Greek 10-year bonds over similar-maturity German bunds, the region’s benchmark government securities, to 442 basis points on April 8, the most since the euro’s debut in 1999. Read the rest of this entry »
10 reasons why this is not a bull market
Posted by Tetyana Matychak in Fund Markets on March 26th, 2010
Kevin Cassidy, a senior credit analyst at Moody’s, recently referenced the $700 billion in risky high-yield corporate debt on the horizon and offered, “An avalanche is brewing in 2012 and beyond if companies don’t get out in front of this.”
Minyanville offered a similar assessment entering September 2008 as $871 billion of corporate debt was set to mature into year-end. We opined there were two plausible scenarios; a credit cancer that would chew through the financial body, or a car crash that would crack the system under the weight of an indebted world. Read Minyanville’s “Pirate’s Booty.”
I agree that another avalanche is building atop Credit Mountain; while risk transferred from corporate coffers to sovereign strongboxes, the magnitude is cumulative in cause and effect. And despite scary parallels between the 2008 financial crisis and our modern day sequel, savvy investors continue to monitor corporate credit as a timing mechanism for an equity downturn.
As stocks grind to fresh 18-month highs, we’re left to wonder if the upside window of opportunity will remain open until corporations are again forced to pay their bar tab. Credit markets are exhibiting surreal strength and through that lens and that lens alone, the equity market has plenty of room to run.
The question is therefore begged– will this singular proxy again ring the bell when a crimson tide is about to turn? Read the rest of this entry »
WORLD FOREX: Euro Hits 10-Month Low Vs Dollar
Posted by Tetyana Matychak in Currency, Favourites on March 25th, 2010
The euro dropped to a fresh 10-month low against the dollar in Asia Thursday as investors in the region sold the common currency on growing concerns over fiscal problems in Europe.
The euro fell below $1.3300 to $1.3283, its lowest level since May 7, after People’s Bank of China Vice Gov. Zhu Min said Greece’s debt crisis is just the tip of the iceberg. The comments came after Fitch Ratings downgraded Portugal’s credit rating overnight, adding to worries that other euro-zone members may face such downgrades.
Zhu’s remark provided “already edgy players with the latest reason to sell into the euro downtrend,” said Hideaki Inoue, chief manager of forex and financial products trading at Mitsubishi UFJ Trust and Banking. The common currency could fall to $1.3200 later in the global day, Inoue said.
Other dealers concurred, saying the euro may tumble as many investors believe a summit of European Union leaders beginning later Thursday may highlight divisions on any rescue package for Greece.
Germany, the bloc’s paymaster and the country most opposed to putting aid on the table, has signaled it may support a bailout, but only if the International Monetary Fund plays a substantial role. Read the rest of this entry »
Greece woes push euro to 10-month low
Posted by Tetyana Matychak in Currency on March 24th, 2010
The euro sank to a 10-month low against the dollar and a lifetime trough versus the Swiss franc on Wednesday as speculation Greece may have a difficult time securing debt aid highlighted instability in the euro zone.
European shares hit their highest since October 2008, following a climb in U.S. stocks, but broader global shares slipped as traders were cautious about taking on big positions ahead of a European Union summit which begins on Thursday.
EU Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn on Wednesday said the union must decide on a way to help debt-laden Greece this week, or run the risk of causing a “serious disruption” for the euro.
His comments came after Germany on Tuesday signaled for the first time that it may accept European financial aid for Greece as a last resort, but only if the IMF is involved and euro zone partners accept tougher budget discipline rules.
Germany had been holding out against proposals to offer Greece bilateral loans because opinion polls show Germans do not want Berlin to be the main paymaster. Read the rest of this entry »
Sarkozy Says EU Must Back Greece
Posted by Tetyana Matychak in Favourites, Trading Markets on March 8th, 2010
French President Nicolas Sarkozy said the European Union must support Greece or risk destroying the euro as Prime Minister George Papandreou heads for Paris to lobby support for the debt-laden country.
“If we created the euro, we cannot let a country fall that is in the eurozone,” said Sarkozy, who hosts Papandreou in Paris tomorrow. “Otherwise there was no point in creating the euro. We must support Greece because they are making an effort.”
EU leaders have so far refused to give financial aid to Greece and have ordered the government to cut its budget deficit, the EU’s highest, on its own. While Papandreou says steps taken this past week to slash the shortfall warrant more help from the EU, German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle said today that his country is “not going to write a blank check.”
Papandreou is touring Luxembourg, Berlin, Paris and Washington after his government passed a 4.8 billion euro ($6.5 billion) austerity package yesterday. German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who met him yesterday, said the question of a bailout “absolutely doesn’t arise” and the steps taken to cut the deficit make her optimistic that a rescue won’t be needed. Read the rest of this entry »

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