Posts Tagged dollar
Dealers Digest Central Bank Views And Buy Bonds
Posted by Tetyana Matychak in Investing on September 1st, 2010
Friday’s initial response to the words from Ben Bernanke is being reversed on Monday. Bond yields jumped sharply as the Fed Chairman said that the FOMC stood ready to perform whatever action necessary to safeguard the economy from failing. Investors immediately looked beyond the action of further quantitative easing and took this as a sign that ultimate economic recovery would be bearish for bonds.
Eurodollar futures – Short-end Eurodollar futures are making gains again on Monday with the rise in deferred maturities almost at a double-digit pace. September treasury note futures have climbed by a half-point this morning to stand at 125-23 to yield 2.59%. The initial response to the speech at Jackson Hole in Wyoming was a fear that meaningful measures to support the U.S. economy would revive growth sufficiently so as to put the era of extremely low interest rates at risk. But as dealers ponder further this morning the renewed buying suggests that they recognize that although the Fed is prepared to act, it can’t go the distance without a confluence of other resources pulling in the same direction at once.
European bond markets – September bunds have recovered from Friday’s slump to 133.25 as weaker longs were knocked out of the market. The contract has climbed once again on Monday to 134.19 where the yield of 2.13 stands seven basis points below that at Friday’s close and compares to last Monday’s record low of 2.09%. The demand for German bunds remained firm despite the headwind of relatively bullish economic data. A European Commission report showed a rise to a two-year peak in confidence in the economic outlook. An unsourced report running in today’s Financial Times says that the ECB will extend its emergency aid to the region’s banking system through 2011. Euribor futures made minor gains on the story. Read the rest of this entry »
Is A Global Reserve Currency A Necessity?
Posted by Tetyana Matychak in Currency, Favourites on June 28th, 2010
Recently Asian Development Bank (ADB) suggested, China’s yuan could rapidly become an internationally used currency and serve as an alternative to the U.S. dollar in central bank reserves. There weren’t many takers for ADB’s suggestion. I beg to differ from ADB’s stance. If China’s yuan becomes a reserve currency then, I ask, is there a guaranty that we won’t see another global financial crisis of the present order? In the wildest of possible pollyannaism, even ADB wouldn’t say that replacement of one reserve currency (US Dollar) with another (China’s yuan) would guarantee us a world free of a future global financial crisis of the present order. At best, I guess, that would be a temporary solution.
I think it is high time we ask the fundamental question – do we need a global reserve currency? Yes of course, there are significant economic incentives in agreeing to have a global reserve currency. But, hasn’t the concept of international reserve currency outlived its usefulness? I, for one, definitely believe so.
A decade ago, in the wake of the Asian financial crisis, Malaysia’s former Prime Minister, Dr Mahathir Mohammed, called on the world to ban currency trading and outlaw hedge funds, which he blamed for spectacular declines in the value of the Malaysian ringgit. His comments focused on the fact that currency trading served no tangible economic purpose and that hedge funds were opaque beasts wielding billions of dollars in vested interests. Though, I don’t agree with his thoughts in toto, I must say his thoughts did inspire me to ask the fundamental question – do we need a global reserve currency? Whatever, one’s answer to the above question may be, there is a broad consensus in the world that the global central banks are risking too much by holding much of their reserves in dollars. The consensus is so strong; there have been a rush of proposals such as – replacing greenback with a new reserve currency system based on the IMF’s special drawing rights; or a more coordinated approach to exchange rate policy involving target zones etc. There are plusses and minuses in all those proposals. But scrapping a global trade based on the concept of international reserve currency seems to be a better idea than all those proposals. Read the rest of this entry »
Bank Issues, Jobs Data Drives Euro To 4-Year Low
Posted by Tetyana Matychak in Currency on June 8th, 2010
After holding steady for a few days, the Euro plunged through the recent bottom to post a 4-year low. This morning’s move came as a surprise to many traders who had expected the single-currency to hold its range until after the release of the employment number.
Traders are saying that this morning’s sharp break was a reaction to new concerns about the health of European banks. Investors are concerned that mounting debt issues across the Euro Zone will erode investor confidence in the Euro and slow down the rebound in the global economy. Many traders were surprised by this morning’s move which caught traders off guard as they awaited the release of the important U.S. jobs data report.
The GBP USD is also under pressure because of the drop in risk appetite. The charts indicate that a test of 1.4499 to 1.4435 is likely over the near-term.
Plunging equity markets are triggering a possible reversal top in the USD JPY. Traders are dumping risky assets following the plunge in the Euro and the weaker than expected U.S. jobs data report. The Dollar/Yen is trading back under a .618 retracement level at 92.41 which makes 91.61 a new downside target.
Falling demand for higher risk assets is helping to drive the USD CAD higher. The main trend is down, but upside momentum is building which could trigger a reversal of this trend on a breakout over the last swing top at 1.0573. Read the rest of this entry »
Commodity-Linked Currencies Suffer Huge Losses
Posted by Tetyana Matychak in Currency, Favourites on June 7th, 2010
The weaker-than-expected U.S. employment report helped trigger a flight-to-safety rally in the Dollar while driving investors out of commodity-linked currencies. Aversion to risk weakened U.S. equity and global commodity markets, helping to drive up demand for the lower-yielding Japanese Yen. All three major commodity-linked currencies – Australian Dollar, New Zealand Dollar and Canadian Dollar – suffered huge losses, leading to speculation that this trend is likely to continue next week.
The U.S. Dollar Index made a new high for the year, boosted by the sharp sell-offs in the Euro, British Pound and the commodity-linked currencies. Gains were limited slightly by the rise in the lower-yielding Japanese Yen.
The initial catalyst behind the U.S. Dollar’s rise on Friday was the news that Hungary is in the midst of a fiscal crisis of its own. This news caught many traders by surprise because most were focused on the upcoming U.S. Jobs Data Report. After the first thrust to the upside, gains were extended when the government reported that the number of jobs created during May fell far below the consensus.
Economist estimates were for an increase of about 513,000 new jobs. The U.S. Labor Department reported an actual increase of 431,000. This news was bearish in itself, but the traders were really surprised when the internals of the report showed that of the 431,000 new positions, 411,000 jobs were created by the U.S. government. This figure was primarily made up of short-term census workers. Read the rest of this entry »
Why it makes sense to fear Greek default
Posted by Tetyana Matychak in Favourites, Trading Markets on May 18th, 2010
Is everybody overstating the consequences of a Greek default and/or devaluation? The Economist points out that Europe has seen quite a few defaults in recent decades (Russia, Poland) and also break-ups of currency unions (Czechoslovakia, Yugoslavia) — and that none of these events caused a lot of lasting damage.
I’m not convinced, if only because the Russia default caused the collapse of LTCM and a serious crisis; if it weren’t for tough arm-twisting by the Fed and billions of private-sector dollars from America’s biggest banks, it could have been much worse. And the end of the koruna and the dinar also meant the end of the Czechoslovakia and Yugoslavia, and the worry is very much that if Greece or anybody else were to exit the euro, then the whole currency union could fall apart, endangering the EU itself.
More generally, financial markets are good at taking the collapse of risky assets in their stride: what they’re bad at is dealing with the collapse of assets they thought were safe. And until very recently, Greek bonds were considered to be an interest-rate play, not a credit play. As a result, the institutions owning them can ill afford to see big losses on them.
The euro was designed to be a super-safe currency; as such, the repercussions of it falling apart would surely be many orders of magnitude greater than anything we saw in the wake of the collapse of the unlamented Yugoslav dinar. Read the rest of this entry »
Euro-zone troubles may keep stocks on edge
Posted by Tetyana Matychak in Fund Markets on May 17th, 2010
Stocks could face more volatility this week as growing doubts about whether Europe can solve its deepening debt crisis are likely to take center stage again.
A $1 trillion rescue package unveiled at the week’s start gave only temporary relief to investors, who are increasingly worried about the impact of the crisis on the global recovery and the euro.
Wall Street also will be anxious to see the results from retailers next week, and will pay special attention to their forecasts for the rest of the year. Wal-Mart Stores (WMT.N) and Lowe’s Co (LOW.N) are among companies expected to report.
Below-par results on Friday from retailers, including Nordstrom (JWN.N) and J.C. Penney Co Inc (JCP.N), cast some doubt on the consumer’s health.
The week also brings government data on inflation, which is expected to remain tame, and on housing, a sector still struggling to recover from the country’s worst economic downturn since the 1930s.
The three major U.S. stock indexes ended Friday’s session with losses ranging from 1.5 percent to 2 percent amid worries over Europe’s debt problems. The CBOE Volatility Index .VIX or VIX, which is Wall Street’s fear gauge, jumped 17.1 percent. Commodity prices also dropped sharply, with oil sliding to a three-month low below $72 per barrel. The euro fell to an 18-month low against the dollar. Read the rest of this entry »
The Betrayal of Greece
Posted by Tetyana Matychak in Trading Markets on May 5th, 2010
I gave a speech at an authentic Greek restaurant last night on the state of the world economy. It seemed only fitting that the topic drifted towards Europe and fears that the Greek debt crisis will spread to other euro zone nations. With dramatic headlines of Greek troubles spreading and the euro hitting fresh lows against the dollar, the situation grows more critical each day. But today’s news only highlights a part of the problem.
The real issue is one of denial and lack of resolve. When the European Union was formed more than 50 years ago, there was much hope and optimism that this trading bloc would become a dominant global force.
The euro marched forward as an alternative currency for trade challenging the US dollar as the global trading standard. Everything seemed to be progressing as planned until a bit of bad news spoiled the party. Turns out that some member countries are having second thoughts about honoring their responsibilities to each other and are now putting their own country’s agenda first. Meanwhile, as the debate continues on how to resolve the Greek debt problem, credibility is crumbling.
Measured self-interest is not a bad thing as every country has a right to make fiscal judgments that it believes are in the best interests of its citizens. But it’s also important for member nations to remember the pledge they made when they decided to become part of the European Community. The chant then was “all for one and one for all”. But it looks like that pledge only applies in good times and is instead subject to debate when tough times roll in. A union should be just that; a union. And the self-interest that is percolating throughout Europe is a grave threat to the solidarity of the euro zone. Read the rest of this entry »
Stocks pull back on Europe’s deepening debt woes
Posted by Tetyana Matychak in Fund Markets on April 28th, 2010
U.S. stocks followed European markets sharply lower Tuesday after Standard & Poor’s downgraded the debt of Portugal and Greece. The rating agency’s move intensified investors’ fears that Europe’s debt problems are spreading.
The Dow Jones industrial average fell nearly 130 points. All the major market indexes were down more than 1 percent.
The ratings downgrades sent the dollar up more than 1.1 percent against the euro, hitting its highest level in about a year. At the same time, gold and U.S. Treasury bond prices also rose as investors sought perceived safe-haven investments. The three often do not trade in the same direction.
“It was a knee-jerk reaction,” said Brian Peardon, a wealth adviser at Harrison Financial Group in Citrus Heights, Calif. Peardon said the small size of Greece and Portugal’s economies mean their debt struggles are not yet a major problem. But if they were to default on their debt, other countries that hold their bonds would also suffer.
Debt-strapped countries might also find it harder to spend more to stimulate their economies and help feed the global economic recovery. Read the rest of this entry »
Greek uncertainty hurts euro
Posted by Tetyana Matychak in Currency on April 27th, 2010
Confusion about the timing and amount of emergency aid for Greece prompted investors to sell the euro on Monday as markets worried whether the euro zone country will manage to avert a debt default.
The euro dipped briefly below $1.33, falling against the greenback for the seventh trading session in the last eight. It also hit a three-month low against sterling on investor concern about potential conditions attached to a loan for Greece.
The Federal Reserve’s policy meeting this week drew renewed attention to when the U.S. central bank will likely begin raising interest rates. The dollar rose above 94 yen as investors bet the Fed would raise rates before year end, well ahead of any move by the Bank of Japan.
Confusion over aid for debt-stricken Greece arose on Monday after German Chancellor Angela Merkel said the euro zone member, which on Friday had requested emergency aid, must commit to further savings measures and show it can return to a sustainable economic path before Germany can approve aid.
Greece had tried to reassure investors over the weekend that the 45 billion euros ($60.5 billion) in aid from the European Union and the International Monetary Fund would arrive in time to avert the euro zone’s first sovereign default. Read the rest of this entry »
Along with SEC, other investigators and suits may target Goldman Sachs
Posted by Tetyana Matychak in Banks, Favourites on April 23rd, 2010
As investigators in Massachusetts considered charging Wall Street firms for their role in the financial collapse, they focused on Goldman Sachs because it had bundled and sold the shoddiest of subprime mortgage loans, setting up the housing market for a greater fall by continuing to sell shaky securities even as other banks withdrew.
After discussions with the office of state Attorney General Martha Coakley (D), Goldman last year agreed to pay up to $60 million to end that investigation, the first major settlement involving Wall Street’s role in the subprime mortgage crisis.
“Goldman was particularly active with respect to facilitating the lending by two of the more notorious and unsound subprime lenders — Fremont and New Century,” Coakley said Wednesday. “Goldman was especially active with these companies in the latter stages of the subprime lending boom . . . when it should have been increasingly clear to any responsible person that the subprime loan pools underlying securitizations suffered serious problems.”
Even before the Securities and Exchange Commission sued Goldman last week, accusing it of creating a complex financial product designed to fail and selling it to unknowing investors, the firm had become a frequent target of investigators. In courts and in Congress, Goldman has been accused of a range of misdeeds, including manipulating oil prices and using taxpayer money for handsome bonuses. Read the rest of this entry »
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Consumer Spending in U.S. Rises More Than Forecast
30 August 2010
Monetary Policy Gets No Respect
19 July 2010
Stocks May Surprise By Year-End
5 July 2010Is A Global Reserve Currency A Necessity?
28 June 2010
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