Posts Tagged Currency
Why it makes sense to fear Greek default
Posted by Oksana Grebenjuk in Favourites, Trading Markets on Май 18th, 2010

Is everybody overstating the consequences of a Greek default and/or devaluation? The Economist points out that Europe has seen quite a few defaults in recent decades (Russia, Poland) and also break-ups of currency unions (Czechoslovakia, Yugoslavia) — and that none of these events caused a lot of lasting damage.
I’m not convinced, if only because the Russia default caused the collapse of LTCM and a serious crisis; if it weren’t for tough arm-twisting by the Fed and billions of private-sector dollars from America’s biggest banks, it could have been much worse. And the end of the koruna and the dinar also meant the end of the Czechoslovakia and Yugoslavia, and the worry is very much that if Greece or anybody else were to exit the euro, then the whole currency union could fall apart, endangering the EU itself.
More generally, financial markets are good at taking the collapse of risky assets in their stride: what they’re bad at is dealing with the collapse of assets they thought were safe. And until very recently, Greek bonds were considered to be an interest-rate play, not a credit play. As a result, the institutions owning them can ill afford to see big losses on them.
The euro was designed to be a super-safe currency; as such, the repercussions of it falling apart would surely be many orders of magnitude greater than anything we saw in the wake of the collapse of the unlamented Yugoslav dinar. Read the rest of this entry »
S&P Downgrades Spain
Posted by Oksana Grebenjuk in Favourites, Trading Markets on Апрель 30th, 2010

Standard & Poor’s Corp. on Wednesday downgraded Spain’s long-term credit-rating by one notch, in a new sign of a deepening euro-zone sovereign debt crisis.
Spain become the third euro-zone nation to be hit with a S&P downgrade in just two days, following steeper cuts on Portugal and Greece. On Tuesday, S&P slashed its ratings on those nations, even junking Greece, amid concerns that nation’s policy options are narrowing because of weak economic growth prospects.
The ratings actions underscore mounting concerns that Greece could default on its debt and that European Union authorities are failing to halt contagion of its financial problems to other highly indebted euro-zone sovereigns. Spain, the euro zone’s fourth largest economy, is grappling with a double-digit budget deficit and faces years of weak growth following the collapse of a decade-long construction boom.
«Spain is the 800 pound gorilla in the room. Greece and Portugal are small countries, but Spain is about five times their size with regards gross domestic product,» Win Thin, senior currency strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman & Co, said in a note to investors.
The news of the Spanish downgrade sent equities in Spain broadly lower. S&P said it reflects a downward revision of its medium-term macroeconomic projections. Read the rest of this entry »
WORLD FOREX: Euro Hits 10-Month Low Vs Dollar
Posted by Oksana Grebenjuk in Currency, Favourites on Март 25th, 2010

The euro dropped to a fresh 10-month low against the dollar in Asia Thursday as investors in the region sold the common currency on growing concerns over fiscal problems in Europe.
The euro fell below $1.3300 to $1.3283, its lowest level since May 7, after People’s Bank of China Vice Gov. Zhu Min said Greece’s debt crisis is just the tip of the iceberg. The comments came after Fitch Ratings downgraded Portugal’s credit rating overnight, adding to worries that other euro-zone members may face such downgrades.
Zhu’s remark provided «already edgy players with the latest reason to sell into the euro downtrend,» said Hideaki Inoue, chief manager of forex and financial products trading at Mitsubishi UFJ Trust and Banking. The common currency could fall to $1.3200 later in the global day, Inoue said.
Other dealers concurred, saying the euro may tumble as many investors believe a summit of European Union leaders beginning later Thursday may highlight divisions on any rescue package for Greece.
Germany, the bloc’s paymaster and the country most opposed to putting aid on the table, has signaled it may support a bailout, but only if the International Monetary Fund plays a substantial role. Read the rest of this entry »





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