Posts Tagged Currency

Why it makes sense to fear Greek default

Is everybody overstating the consequences of a Greek default and/or devaluation? The Economist points out that Europe has seen quite a few defaults in recent decades (Russia, Poland) and also break-ups of currency unions (Czechoslovakia, Yugoslavia) — and that none of these events caused a lot of lasting damage.

I’m not convinced, if only because the Russia default caused the collapse of LTCM and a serious crisis; if it weren’t for tough arm-twisting by the Fed and billions of private-sector dollars from America’s biggest banks, it could have been much worse. And the end of the koruna and the dinar also meant the end of the Czechoslovakia and Yugoslavia, and the worry is very much that if Greece or anybody else were to exit the euro, then the whole currency union could fall apart, endangering the EU itself.

More generally, financial markets are good at taking the collapse of risky assets in their stride: what they’re bad at is dealing with the collapse of assets they thought were safe. And until very recently, Greek bonds were considered to be an interest-rate play, not a credit play. As a result, the institutions owning them can ill afford to see big losses on them.

The euro was designed to be a super-safe currency; as such, the repercussions of it falling apart would surely be many orders of magnitude greater than anything we saw in the wake of the collapse of the unlamented Yugoslav dinar. Read the rest of this entry »

, , , ,

No Comments

S&P Downgrades Spain

Standard & Poor’s Corp. on Wednesday downgraded Spain’s long-term credit-rating by one notch, in a new sign of a deepening euro-zone sovereign debt crisis.

Spain become the third euro-zone nation to be hit with a S&P downgrade in just two days, following steeper cuts on Portugal and Greece. On Tuesday, S&P slashed its ratings on those nations, even junking Greece, amid concerns that nation’s policy options are narrowing because of weak economic growth prospects.

The ratings actions underscore mounting concerns that Greece could default on its debt and that European Union authorities are failing to halt contagion of its financial problems to other highly indebted euro-zone sovereigns. Spain, the euro zone’s fourth largest economy, is grappling with a double-digit budget deficit and faces years of weak growth following the collapse of a decade-long construction boom.

«Spain is the 800 pound gorilla in the room. Greece and Portugal are small countries, but Spain is about five times their size with regards gross domestic product,» Win Thin, senior currency strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman & Co, said in a note to investors.

The news of the Spanish downgrade sent equities in Spain broadly lower. S&P said it reflects a downward revision of its medium-term macroeconomic projections. Read the rest of this entry »

, , , , , ,

No Comments

Greek Problems Will Drive Integration

European politicians seem to have learned from their counterparts in the Obama administration. Rahm Emanuel, Barack Obama’s tough-minded chief of staff, surveyed the inherited wreckage of the American economy, and told the President, «You never want a serious crisis to go to waste.» No one can accuse the EU politicians and their bureaucrats of wasting the serious crisis created for the eurozone by Greek profligacy.

Not that they have solved it quite yet. Mere talk of bailouts and International Monetary Fund intervention didn’t satisfy the markets, which remained sufficiently wary to levy so hefty a charge on Greeks bearing bonds that the Greek government capitulated, and publicly rattled its begging bowl. It will soon be filled by a euro-zone-IMF consortium.

For the proponents of greater European integration Greece’s crisis is their opportunity to push their agenda further than they would have dreamed possible had the Greeks not cooked their books and gone on a borrowing binge to support the lavish life style of the ever-increasing number of government employees.

It was no secret that a common currency and a one-size-fits-all interest rate would sooner or later run into problems in the absence of a unified fiscal policy. Nor did anyone really believe that the 3% limit on the deficit:GDP ratio contained in the Growth and Stability pact was more than a sop to the Germans for surrendering their stable Deutschemark. But so long as the world’s economies were booming, this kink in the armor of Europe’s integrationists was of little consequence. Germany’s export machine kept rolling, Greek consumers kept importing, borrowing at attractive rates to pay for the imports, and all seemed well. Read the rest of this entry »

, , , , ,

No Comments

China Said Close to Announcing Currency Revision

The Chinese government is very close to announcing a revision of its currency policy in the coming days that will allow greater variation in the value of its currency combined with a small but immediate jump in its value against the dollar, people with knowledge of the consensus emerging in Beijing said on Thursday.

While the possibility remains of a last-minute glitch that could delay an announcement, China’s central bank appears to have prevailed with its arguments within the Chinese leadership for a stronger but more flexible currency, these people said. They insisted on anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue in Beijing.

The model for the upcoming shift in currency policy is China’s move in 2005, when the leadership allowed the renminbi to jump 2 percent overnight against the dollar and then trade in a wider daily range, but with a trend toward further strengthening against the dollar. For the upcoming announcement, however, China is likely to emphasize that the value of the renminbi can fall as well as rise on any given day, so as to discourage a flood of speculative investment into China betting on rapid further appreciation, they said.

The emerging consensus within the Chinese leadership comes as Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner held meetings on Thursday with senior Hong Kong officials and prepared to fly on Thursday evening to Beijing for a meeting with Vice Premier Wang Qishan. Read the rest of this entry »

, ,

No Comments

WORLD FOREX: Euro Hits 10-Month Low Vs Dollar

The euro dropped to a fresh 10-month low against the dollar in Asia Thursday as investors in the region sold the common currency on growing concerns over fiscal problems in Europe.

The euro fell below $1.3300 to $1.3283, its lowest level since May 7, after People’s Bank of China Vice Gov. Zhu Min said Greece’s debt crisis is just the tip of the iceberg. The comments came after Fitch Ratings downgraded Portugal’s credit rating overnight, adding to worries that other euro-zone members may face such downgrades.

Zhu’s remark provided «already edgy players with the latest reason to sell into the euro downtrend,» said Hideaki Inoue, chief manager of forex and financial products trading at Mitsubishi UFJ Trust and Banking. The common currency could fall to $1.3200 later in the global day, Inoue said.

Other dealers concurred, saying the euro may tumble as many investors believe a summit of European Union leaders beginning later Thursday may highlight divisions on any rescue package for Greece.

Germany, the bloc’s paymaster and the country most opposed to putting aid on the table, has signaled it may support a bailout, but only if the International Monetary Fund plays a substantial role. Read the rest of this entry »

, , , , ,

No Comments