Posts Tagged crisis
Euro Area Backs Greek Aid, Looks to New Bailout
Posted by Oksana Grebenjuk in Favourites, Trading Markets on Июль 4th, 2011
The euro area approved its share of a 12 billion-euro ($17.4 billion) aid payment for Greece and pledged to complete work in the coming weeks on a second rescue package for the cash-strapped nation to prevent a default.
Finance ministers agreed to disburse 8.7 billion euros of loans under last year’s 110 billion-euro bailout by July 15, rewarding Greek Premier George Papandreou for pushing an extra austerity plan through parliament. The International Monetary Fund is due to provide the rest of the July aid installment, the fifth under the 2010 package.
The spotlight now turns to a second bailout to which banks and insurers plan to contribute following German demands for taxpayer relief. Euro-area governments and investors will provide 70 percent of new aid that may total as much as 85 billion euros, with the IMF offering the rest, Thomas Wieser, an Austrian Finance Ministry official, said on June 30.
“The Greek authorities provided a strong commitment to adhere to the agreed fiscal adjustment path,” the 17 euro-area finance chiefs said in an e-mailed statement yesterday after a conference call that was joined by the IMF’s acting chief, John Lipsky, and European Central Bank President Jean- Claude Trichet. “The precise modalities and scale of private- sector involvement and additional funding from official sources will be determined in the coming weeks.” Read the rest of this entry »
Wall St higher as investors bet on Greece plan
Posted by Oksana Grebenjuk in Fund Markets on Июнь 27th, 2011
Stocks rebounded from three days of losses on Monday as investors bet there would be a near-term resolution to some of the uncertainty over Greece’s fiscal crisis, but the absence of a firm plan could limit the market’s upside.
The Greek parliament will begin to debate a deeply unpopular austerity program that must be approved in order to get the next bailout payment. A Greek minister warned of «catastrophe» if the measure is not passed in a vote later this week.
French President Nicolas Sarkozy said his government had an agreement with French banks on rolling over Greek debt into new 30-year bonds, which helped ease tensions around the region.
Traders see a Greek sovereign default as unlikely, and the S&P 500 holding its 200-day moving average was viewed as a sign of technical support following two months of heavy selling that brought the index down about 7 percent.
«There’s still a lot of fear out there, but the absence of bad news over the past few days, coupled with the selloff late Friday, is creating a bounce now,» said Mitch Rubin, chief investment officer at RiverPark Advisors in New York. Read the rest of this entry »
Why a Greek Default Would be Worse Than Lehman Brothers’ Collapse
Posted by Oksana Grebenjuk in Investing on Июнь 3rd, 2011
If Greece defaults on its debt, the direct secondary effects on financial institutions could be much worse than what we saw after the collapse of Lehman Brothers.
The collapse of Lehman Brothers sent shockwaves through the global financial system—in part because it revealed that the United States government was willing to let a large, interconnected, complex financial company go bankrupt. Panic erupted, threatening the financial stability of other companies.
But the actual direct effects were few. Lehman had some 600,000 derivatives contracts and hundreds of billions in outstanding bonds, but Lehman’s institutional creditors were generally required to reserve some capital against Lehman’s collapse. This greatly diminished the direct knock-on effects of Lehman’s bankruptcy. Capital cushions actually cushioned.
There is roughly 270 billion Euros in outstanding Greek sovereign debt. Banks—mostly European banks—hold around 100 billion Euros of Greek bonds. Insurance companies, pensions funds and central banks hold most of the other 170 billion. For the most part, these holders of Greek debt have not had to reserve any capital against losses. This means that most of the holders of Greek debt will feel the full brunt of the losses, which raises the question of whether they are adequately capitalized to take the loss.
European bank capital regulations treat Eurozone sovereign debt as riskless. This was, in effect, a subsidy to the riskier Eurozone governments—allowing them to borrow at far lower costs than they other would have faced. The spread between German and Greek debt fell to 20 basis points in 2004, thanks largely to this subsidy. Read the rest of this entry »
The Stupidity of Hope: Greece Is Still Going to Default
Posted by Oksana Grebenjuk in Favourites, Trading Markets on Июнь 2nd, 2011
Keeping in mind that the words “hope” and “Greece” should almost never be used in the same sentence, here would be the one exception: Let’s “hope” markets aren’t rallying on “hope” for “Greece.”
Hope, apparently, does spring eternal, however, and it seems as though despite all the evidence to the contrary, there are still people out there with money to spend who believe that Greece can be rescued yet from its seemingly intractable fiscal position.
How else to explain Monday’s surge in the euro and drop in the US dollar, which had been rallying on well-placed hopes that the periphery of Europe was sliding further into the debt abyss and ready to implode?
Irrationality, we now can conclude, comes in many forms. The latest form is in some weakly substantiated murmurs out of Germany that the core of the core of euro zone nations might be softening its stance towards a Greek bailout and is ready to ease its demands that the nation speed up its ultimately unavoidable debt restructuring.
Despite compelling evidence that Germany is in no political position to turn suddenly benevolent towards its free-spending weak sister to the south, the rally was on. Read the rest of this entry »
Stocks Rise on Greek Aid Optimism
Posted by Oksana Grebenjuk in Fund Markets on Май 31st, 2011
Stocks rose worldwide, paring the biggest monthly decline since August, and the euro gained amid speculation nations will pledge more aid to Greece. Commodities advanced, while Treasuries erased losses after U.S. economic reports missed forecasts.
The MSCI All-Country World Index increased 1 percent at 11:57 a.m. in New York, paring this month’s loss to 2.8 percent. The euro climbed to a three-week high of $1.4424, and the yen fell against its 16 major peers. Among 10-year bonds, German bunds added four basis points to 3.02 percent, Greek yields slid 31 basis points to 15.84 percent and Treasuries dropped to 3.05 percent from 3.10 percent. Oil rose, and wheat dropped.
European Union leaders will decide on a new aid package for Greece by the end of next month, Luxembourg’s Jean-Claude Juncker, who leads the group of euro-area finance ministers, said yesterday in Paris. More than $1.8 trillion was erased from the value of stocks worldwide this month through yesterday as evidence mounted that the U.S. economic recovery is slowing and EU officials struggled to contain the region’s debt crisis.
“Markets are focused on the debt crisis,” said Tom Mangan, who helps oversee $2.7 billion at James Investment Research Inc. in Xenia, Ohio. “We have had a pattern where the impact on the dollar is positive, U.S. bonds do better and stocks fade every time the Greek crisis rears its ugly head, and the other way around. This will continue until we get it resolved.” Read the rest of this entry »
Mobius Says Fresh Financial Crisis Is Around Corner
Posted by Oksana Grebenjuk in Favourites, Investing on Май 30th, 2011
Mark Mobius, executive chairman of Templeton Asset Management’s emerging markets group, said another financial crisis is inevitable because the causes of the previous one haven’t been resolved.
“There is definitely going to be another financial crisis around the corner because we haven’t solved any of the things that caused the previous crisis,” Mobius said at the Foreign Correspondents’ Club of Japan in Tokyo today in response to a question about price swings. “Are the derivatives regulated? No. Are you still getting growth in derivatives? Yes.”
The total value of derivatives in the world exceeds total global gross domestic product by a factor of 10, said Mobius, who oversees more than $50 billion. With that volume of bets in different directions, volatility and equity market crises will occur, he said.
The global financial crisis three years ago was caused in part by the proliferation of derivative products tied to U.S. home loans that ceased performing, triggering hundreds of billions of dollars in writedowns and leading to the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. in September 2008. The MSCI AC World Index of developed and emerging market stocks tumbled 46 percent between Lehman’s downfall and the market bottom on March 9, 2009. Read the rest of this entry »
Fitch cuts Greek rating, warns over restructuring
Posted by Oksana Grebenjuk in Investing on Май 24th, 2011
Fitch cut Greece’s credit rating by three notches on Friday, pushing the country deeper into junk territory, and warned that any kind of debt restructuring would amount to default. Fitch was the second rating agency to warn that it would consider any loss imposed on bondholders as a default after Standard and Poor’s said the same earlier this month.
«An extension of the maturity of existing bonds would be considered by Fitch to be a default event and Greece and its obligations would be rated accordingly,» the rating agency said. If private sector ‘burden sharing’ is coercive, the credibility of EU/IMF policy commitments not just for Greece but also Ireland and Portugal would be severely diminished and affect financial stability across the euro area, it said.
One year into its European Union/International Monetary Fund bailout, Greece is struggling with weak revenues and a deep recession, fuelling speculation that it will have to restructure its debt to pull itself out of the fiscal mess that triggered a euro zone crisis.
«The rating downgrade reflects the scale of the challenge facing Greece in implementing a radical fiscal and structural reform program necessary to secure solvency of the state and the foundations for sustained economic recovery,» Fitch said in a statement. Read the rest of this entry »
The Real Reason Gas Prices Are Soaring
Posted by Oksana Grebenjuk in Trading Markets on Март 31st, 2011
Have you ever wondered why when you go to the gas station to fill up the family car, the price of gas at the pump has just jumped 25 cents a gallon over the past three days? Perhaps you thought the oil companies were just being greedy. Or you believed the nightly news pundit who said that gas prices went up because the crisis in Libya was affecting supplies of oil. One professional oil trader says that you’d be wrong on both counts.
Dan Dicker, who has spent nearly three decades in the oil market, has a profoundly disturbing explanation of why the price of oil, and the gasoline that comes from the crude product, has risen so dramatically in recent months. It turns out, Dicker says, that the price has nothing to do with supply and demand for oil. It’s the financial market for oil, filled with both professional speculators and amateur investors betting on poorly understood oil exchange-traded funds, who have ratcheted up the price of gas to such sky high levels.
«There is no supply issue going on here — what you have is the perception of the possibility of a supply issue,» Dicker says. «A whole bunch of people are pouring money into an oil market trying to take advantage of what they perceive to be a real risk in supply. It’s a marketplace that I argue should not be allowed to be wagered on like a stock or bond.»
Dicker notes that Libya produces only 1.3 million barrels of oil a day, just a tiny fraction of the world oil market. Even if Libyan crude were lost to the world market in the current turmoil, and there is no sign that it is, Saudi Arabia has 5 million barrels a day to use in case of an emergency. Read the rest of this entry »
China flexed its muscles using U.S. Treasuries
Posted by Oksana Grebenjuk in Fund Markets on Февраль 25th, 2011
Confidential diplomatic cables from the U.S. embassies in Beijing and Hong Kong lay bare China’s growing influence as America’s largest creditor.
As the U.S. Federal Reserve grappled with the aftershocks of financial crisis, the Chinese, like many others, suffered huge losses from their investments in American financial firms — from Lehman Brothers to the Primary Reserve Fund, the money market fund that broke the buck.
The cables, obtained by WikiLeaks, show that escalating Chinese pressure prompted a procession of soothing visits from the U.S.Treasury Department. In one striking instance, a top Chinese money manager directly asked U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner for a favor.
In June, 2009, the head of China’s powerful sovereign wealth fund met with Geithner and requested that he lean on regulators at the U.S. Federal Reserve to speed up the approval of its $1.2 billion investment in Morgan Stanley, according to the cables, which were provided to Reuters by a third party.
Although the cables do not mention if Geithner took any action, China’s deal to buy Morgan Stanley shares was announced the very next day.
The two Treasury officials to whom the cables were addressed, Deputy Assistant Secretary for Asia Robert Dohner and Deputy Assistant Secretary for International Monetary and Financial Policy Mark Sobel, declined through a spokesperson to comment for this story. The State Department also declined to comment. Read the rest of this entry »
A new global food crisis looms
Posted by Oksana Grebenjuk in Budget on Февраль 23rd, 2011
Soaring food prices, which the World Bank says have hit «dangerous levels,» have thrust the issue of food security sharply into the global spotlight over the past week.
From Asia to the Middle East and to Latin America, the trends of food prices have aroused widespread public concerns globally and in the developing world in particular.
World Bank Group President Robert B. Zoellick warned on Tuesday: «Global food prices are rising to dangerous levels and threaten tens of millions of poor people around the world.»
Rising food prices have driven an estimated 44 million people into poverty in developing countries since last June, as food costs continue to rise to near 2008 levels.
The latest edition of Food Price Watch, a research publication by the World Bank, showed that its food price index rose by 15 percent between October 2010 and January 2011. It is 29 percent above its level a year earlier and only 3 percent below its 2008 peak.
Then what are the main factors behind the food price spikes?
The answer lies in the ultra-loose monetary policy of the United States, the financialization of the global farm produce market, the development of biofuels and the extreme weather events affecting harvests in the world’s main grain-producing areas. Read the rest of this entry »
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