October retail sales in the U.S. rebounded more than anticipated as demand for autos climbed, easing concern households will curtail spending after government incentives ended.
The 1.4 percent increase followed a 2.3 percent drop in the prior month that was much larger than previously estimated, making last month’s gain less impressive, Commerce Department figures showed today in Washington. Purchases excluding autos rose less than forecast.
Rising demand at retailers from discount chain TJX Cos. to luxury store Saks Inc. may foreshadow a brighter holiday shopping season. Acceleration in consumer spending, which accounts for 70 percent of the economy, will depend on an improvement in the labor market that has yet to unfold.
“Consumers are looking relatively resilient,” said Michael Feroli, an economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in New York, who projected sales would increase 1.3 percent. “They are spending a little more freely, which bodes well for the holiday season. Given the backdrop of the labor market, this is actually as good as one can hope for.”
Manufacturing in the New York region expanded in November for a fourth straight month, a report from the Federal Reserve also showed. The Empire State index fell to 23.5 from a five- year high of 34.6 in October, the Fed Bank of New York reported. Readings greater than zero signal growth.
Stocks Trim Gains
Stock-index futures trimmed earlier gains after the reports. The contract on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index was up 0.7 percent to 1,099.5 at 8:49 a.m. in New York after being up as much as 1 percent just before the figures. Treasury securities rose.
Retail sales were projected to rise 0.9 percent after an originally reported 1.5 percent decline in September, according to the median estimate of 66 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. Forecasts ranged from gains of 0.4 percent to 1.8 percent.
Excluding automobiles, sales increased 0.2 percent after a 0.4 percent gain in September. They were forecast to increase 0.4 percent, according to the survey median.
Sales at automobile dealerships and parts stores jumped 7.4 percent after a 14 percent plunge the prior month that was larger than previously estimated.
Auto demand is stabilizing after plunging to a three-decade low earlier this year. General Motors Co. and Ford Motor Co. last month had their first combined sales gain in three years, helping the industry rebound from a plunge in September. Overall sales climbed to a 10.5 million annual rate from 9.2 million.
Auto Sales
Fritz Henderson, GM’s chief executive officer, said in a Bloomberg Television interview today that November’s sales pace will be about the same as last month’s.
Car dealers aren’t the only retailers to see improvement. Sales climbed at clothing, department and health and personal care stores, along with Internet retailers and restaurants. Furniture, electronic and building supply stores all showed declines, signaling the rebound in housing will be slow to develop.
Sales at filling stations played little role in the figures, being unchanged for the month.
Excluding autos, gasoline and building materials — the retail group the government uses to calculate gross domestic product figures for consumer spending — sales improved 0.5 percent after a 0.4 percent increase. The government uses data from other sources to calculate the contribution from the three categories excluded.
Broad-Based Gains
Sales at stores open at least a year climbed last month from a year earlier at Framingham, Massachusetts-based TJX, owner of T.J. Maxx and Marshalls stores that sell designer goods at discounted prices. Luxury chains Saks and Nordstrom Inc. also had gains, helping the retail industry report its biggest same- store sales increase since July 2008.
Wal-Mart Stores Inc., the world’s largest retailer, raised its annual profit forecast while predicting U.S. sales may be little changed this quarter. Bentonville, Arkansas-based Walmart plans to cut prices weekly, and offer discounts on items such as flat-panel televisions to win holiday shoppers.
“While the economy remains challenging for our customers and therefore for Walmart sales, I continue to be encouraged by both our traffic and market-share gains,” Chief Executive Officer Mike Duke said on a pre-recorded conference call last week.
Stronger Growth
Economic growth will be stronger over coming quarters than previously anticipated as manufacturing, business spending and exports pick up, according to a Bloomberg survey of economists taken Nov. 2 to Nov. 9.
Consumer spending will be slower to rebound as unemployment exceeds 10 percent through the first half of 2010, economists surveyed projected.
Payrolls fell by 190,000 in October and the jobless rate jumped to 10.2 percent, topping 10 percent for the first time since 1983. Concern about jobs and incomes pushed consumer sentiment down to a three-month low in November, according to a report from Reuters/University of Michigan last week.
Source: Bloomberg.
Свежие комментарии