It’s not alarmist to think that you’ll need long-term care in your lifetime. Among Americans who reach their 65th birthday, 45% will have to pay for some kind of long-term-care services, according to the actuarial firm Milliman.

Yet the decision whether to buy a long-term-care insurance policy, which pays out for nursing-home and certain at-home care, is one of the toughest calls you’ll ever have to make. Insurance could preserve your estate for your heirs and save incredible heartache. On the other hand, it’s expensive and chances are you won’t need it.

Strictly by the numbers

There’s no question that years in a nursing home can decimate your savings. The average facility now costs $213 a day, according to a MetLife survey; based on last year’s 3% yearly price increase, by 2030 you can expect to pay $408 a day, or $148,967 a year. For a 2½-year average stay, the tab would be about $372,000.

The chances that you’ll need that much care, however, are small. Only 9% of 65-year-olds can expect a lengthy nursing-home stay, according to Milliman (another 18% will need long-term assisted-living care). Read the rest of this entry »